BRITISH 2YO RACING - 2005 Season Race Report
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038: Windsor : April 18th, 5f (5) Maiden

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1. RACE SUMMARY

a) Performance Comparison
 

  • Ground was officially good although good-to-soft from the 6f to 5f stretch if comparing this race with the previous older sprint.
  • The course has apparently been divided and the stands' rail was at least 10 yards out from its normal position and making the last stretch of the course relatively narrow. Despite this the evidence of this race suggested that the stands' rail is still an advantage. However the group that went wide on the course never made up their minds to go to the far rail so and drifted back to the main group on the stands' side. Thus they really only achieved a detour on the way to the line and gave those that went straight down the stands' rail an initiative.
  • An odd betting market with nothing obviously fancied which led to only Coburn and Green Pride trading at less than 10/1 for most of the time. This was peculiar because neither run for trainers who target strong debuts and FTO winners tend to be useful+. However the 'whisper' was that Coburn was useful and Green Pride was the preferred of the Hannon pair. This presumably made the prices as they were in a market with few other clues. It would be a much better idea if people quantified whispers, i.e. rather than "he's useful" how about "he's a 90+ horse and we know he can run to 75+ here". If you don't put a number on it then why should people bet on the 'whisper'?
  • Anyway, both Coburn and Green Pride had low draws and ended up going on the detour towards the far rail and back and kept on well enough and were the first home from that group. The question being how much ground did they lose because of that? They finished among a group of moderate to average types on profile and ran not untypical debuts by their trainer's standards.
  • The time was not strong and suggests just an average performance with the winner making the most of his readiness, his previous experience, his good start and running the stands' rail to win comfortably.
  • The following table gives the ratings given to the actual race performances ('Estimate') compared to the Profile ratings assigned before the race. A box in green denotes a runner that exceeded pre-race expectations and in pink a runner that performed notably below expectations. In either case it is useful to try to identify the reason for the difference.

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    Positions 1st to 10th
    Crocodile Bay Green Park Scarlet Knight Carmenero Coburn Green Pride Embraceable Lava Flow Dingaan Distant Shores
    [Estimate] Post-race 70 63 62 61 58 57 47 52 45 35
    [Profile] Pre-race 59 66 44 47 54 60 36 63 61 44
     
    Positions 11th to 16th
    In Fashion Silver Rocket Dr Pertseff Allsussedup Ivans Ride Lucayos
    [Estimate] Post-race 32 23 25 24 6 0
    [Profile] Pre-race 51 18 66 50 51 28
     
    Crocodile Bay The trainer's first STO runner of the season and reportedly "too inexperienced on debut" to show his best. 14/1 and very professional here. Broke well and set his own pace along the stands' rail (probable advantage). Won slightly comfortably but in a middling time. A number of his stronger rivals may have made their own difficulties.
    Green Park Trainer's second string to a cheaper type but ridden by a more 'competitive' jockey with debut 2yos and better drawn. Ran close to stands' rail and always prominent and kept on well. Can be a 75+ 6f sprinter.
    Scarlet Knight Did not look a 5f speed type on set up. Lost ground with a slow start but ran the advantageous stands' rail. Made ground in the last furlong as other runners stalled which perhaps made his finish look better but still a good effort this early over 5f for a horse that needs further. 33/1 on debut.
    Carmenero 40/1 on debut for trainer with moderate record with 2yos. Remarkably heavy and mature for early season 2yo. Confirmed this by running above expectations by being prominent at halfway and making an effort 2 furlongs out before stalling in the last furlong. lacks some athleticism but ought to rate around 70 early season. Trainer has a moderate record in converting promise into 2yo wins.
    Coburn 100/30 favourite on debut with L. Dettori riding. An interesting example of how a 'whisper' horse can end up favourite even when there are a range of negative factors. To repeat the main point, only the very best (95+ raters) 2yos win first time out for this trainer especially in early season. So the 'whisper' must have said he was Group class? Unlikely, but with nothing else in the field fancied the whisper seemed to have gained it's own momentum and hence he was favourite.
    Another negative as it turned out was that he was drawn low and went on a tour of the course to centre-far side and back. He wouldn't have won but he may have placed without this. The point being that this was a perfectly good debut by a 2yo for the trainer and promising 80+ performances later. However, it didn't promise 'Group class'. For example a Group class runner that did win for the trainer FTO in earlier season like Cape Fear would have won here even with a detour around the course.
    Green Pride 4/1 and the stable preferred and ridden by R Hughes. Low drawn and went on the detour to centre course and back with a group of five. Second best of that group and ran roughly to expectations. Looked a mature type and grown since sales but lacking quality.
    Embraceable Has a non 5f pedigree but a likeable type with some scope at a low level. Ran above expectations at 50/1 in the stands side group. One to track for development. A general point is that the trainer has had a number of more prominent debuts than usual in 2005 - is this because of a better group or are they more ready?
    Lava Flow Was notably wound-up and poorly behaved before the race and did not look as if he could perform to expectations. Started off in the far side group but crossed to stands' side at halfway. Never got into the race and performed below expectations but his behaviour could explain that.
    Dingaan 9/1 volunteer third favourite and the trainer's first 2yo runner of 2005. A neat and ready type and fit enough on debut. Ran a poor race in the stands' side group and was never competitive. Slightly poorly behaved before the race but not enough to explain this poor effort.
    Distant Shores Typical trainer debut but with less promise than expected but she was a moderate type in paddock review and this could have caused this. Would expect to see her running in AW sellers soon and difficult to see her developing beyond that.
    In Fashion 25/1 on debut. In touch on the stands' side before a poor fade from after halfway. Below expectations for a trainer who does not normally show progress with his 2yos.
    Silver Rocket Relatively short at 12/1 in an unbalanced market. One of the least fit on debut and performed to expectations. Has prospects to be a minor sprinter.
    Dr Pertseff 20/1 and unfancied in an unbalanced market. One of the least fit on debut and looking to need to develop physically and mentally to reach his potential. Ran a poor race even so with a strong fade after halfway but had gone wide on the course with the far side pacemakers. First ride at the course for a newcomer Brazilian jockey.
    Allsussedup Broke well and set good pace on the far side and probably led the whole field early. Strong fade after halfway.
    Ivans Ride The least fit on debut and not ready to compete to her profile. Added a notably slow break to this and never got into the race. Relatively short at 16/1 in an unbalanced market lacking real inspiration.
    Lucayos STO and unseated jockey on debut. Showed some poor attitude before the race and a slow break from stall 1 and never got into the race. Needs to improve his behaviour to realise any minor latent potential due to his relative size.


    2. PADDOCK REVIEW SUMMARY
    a) RATINGS & SUM-UPS
    The table gives the Paddock Review rating for the runners. The descriptions to the ratings is the same as those given in the 2004 Sales rating section.
    Name Rating Sum-up
    Coburn
    79
    		 Only medium sized in the group but with above average build. Fairly typical strong 'Pivotal' type and notably strong and mature in front. Ought to be 80+ rated sprinter.
    Green Park
    77
    		 Likeable, neat type with average build and good attitude. Slightly lighter and 'up' behind and needs to strengthen and not a full '5f' sprint type. Ought to rate high 70s over 6f.
    Crocodile Bay 74 Rating probably close to an 'at best'. Only medium size and build in the group. Ok strength behind but slightly weaker front. On the positive side he was a ready type and a good mover despite being slightly up behind. Probably the readiest type in the field and others had more scope to develop.
    Dr Pertseff
    73
    		 Typically neat type of trainer although possibly a little too compact. Still mentally young and not fit enough to really compete on debut. Can develop to rate low 70s but will need time.
    Lava Flow 70 Not obviously 70k gns worth. Good size but lacks build, especially in front. Needs to develop and tighten up. However, the biggest problem was his behaviour. He is slightly mentally immature and was nervous and wound-up here. He ended up looking 'gone inside' himself (always a bad sign) and sweating on his neck (which he held 'crested' a lot of the time). Until his behaviour settles down he isn't going to realise his potential.
    Green Pride
    70
    		 Not a particularly taking type and a surprise to see him second favourite and preferred to Green Park. Has grown well from the sales but not put on muscle in front, narrow overall. On the positive side he's mature and ready although not with strong scope to develop. Lacks quality overall.
    Carmenero
    69
    		 Had looked like he might be a 'heavy 'trundler' at the sales and not be able to make the most of his strength. He's still too compact but has strengthened up even more and is remarkably mature in front (a good sign). He likely to be limited by his compactness but his strength and maturity will allow him to compete well in early to mid-season.
    Dingaan 69 Medium size with slightly better build. Ready type and lacking strong scope to grow and develop. In theory ought to be an ok 'medium' sprinter his movement behind was tight and not fluid and a slight issue. His behaviour was just about acceptable although he was unsheathed for most of the pre-parade
    Scarlet Knight
    68
    		 A good size but a taller, lengthier, narrow and slightly leggy type. Not the real build of a sprinter. Good quality with the build he has.
    Ivans Ride
    65
    		 Absolutely typical just below medium sized, neat filly with medium build that the trainer has. The least fit in the group. The trainer usually gets these fillies to rate in the mid-60s and wins an auction or similar before wither running them in claimers of in handicaps if they can scrape to 70ish rating.
    Embraceable 63 An interesting filly. By a first season sire who seems to get bigger types and from a dam side with some quality but over staying distances. Slightly immature and with lengthy set up and build which suggest she needs further. She was also slightly weak in from and short for her length. However, on the positive side she carries well, especially behind. She isn't a 'speed' filly on her set-up but has the build and enough athleticism to develop.
    Distant Shores
    62
    		 Hmmm. The trainer has introduced a 3 time 3yo winner at Windsor in 3 of the last four seasons. However, hard to see this one improving that record (although the same could be said of Borzoi Maestro). Just about the smallest and lightest in the group. Narrow with it and weak behind. One of the fittest in the group. A seller type on looks and interesting to see whether she runs in one soon and how she develops from there in later season.
    Silver Rocket
    62
    		 Joint smallest and lightest in the field. Looked like a smaller and lighter version of Bella Tutrice who rated around 70 for the same trainer. Ok muscle behind but weaker in front. Might make a 'little sprinter' capable of 60+  rating.
    Lucayos
    61
    		 One of the biggest in the field and mature with it. Also the fittest on his second run. He was bandaged in front. In theory his size should allow him to compete in early season at a low level. However his movement behind looks too poor to let him use his size and he adds a 'surly' attitude to this to break the 'deal'.
    Allsussedup 60 Ok size but lengthy and narrow with it, lacking build for size. Lighter behind and not an obvious 'speed' type.
    In Fashion 59 One of the smallest and lightest in the group. Better build in front but lighter behind. Very straight and tight movement behind (lacks athleticism)
    b) SIZE AND BUILD
    The table below ranks the sixteen runners for the separate qualities of Size (overall framework) and Build (muscle mass and development).
     
    Size
    Build
    Carmenero, 
    Allsussedup, Green Pride, Lava Flow, Lucayos, Scarlet Knight Coburn, Dingaan, Dr Pertseff, Green Park, Green Pride, Lucayos, Embraceable
    Carmenero, Dingaan, Dr Pertseff, Green Park, Embraceable Allsussedup, Crocodile Bay, Ivans Ride, Lava Flow, 
    Coburn, Crocodile Bay, Ivans Ride, In Fashion Scarlet Knight, In Fashion
    Distant Shores, Silver Rocket Distant Shores, Silver Rocket

    c) FITNESS
    The table below shows the runners ranked by their fitness on the day:

    Fitness
    Allsussedup, Lucayos 94
    Dingaan, Distant Shores, Green Pride 93.5
    Carmenero, Crocodile Bay, Lava Flow, In Fashion 93
    Green Park, Scarlet Knight 92.5
     Coburn, Dr Pertseff, Embraceable, Silver Rocket 92
    Ivans Ride 91.5

    d) PICTURES
    Pictures (mostly ok quality) are available, and the best will be linked from the runner's individual summary pages, of the following runners :


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