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2005 Season - Review of the first 25 races
and immediate prospects
Page Index
The 2yo season is underway and 24 races have been scheduled although only 23 have been run with Redcar abandoned on March 28th. Although still at an early stage it is worth reviewing the results and performances so far.
The season to date 'feels' like it has been different from the early stages of the seasons 2002-4. The following areas have given the impression that 2005 has had a different beginning :-
The table below summarises the number of debut winners compared to runners
that win after a previous run in the last four seasons. There were 24 races
to a similar point in 2003.
| 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |
| Debut Winners | 11 | 16 | 15 | 10 |
| STO Winners | 10 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 3TO+ Winners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Although a limited sample the table suggests that the start to 2005 has been different to those in 2003-4 but very similar to 2002. There are a number of factors which affect the number of debut winners. One similarity between 2002 and 2005 is that the turf going has been softer in those seasons compared to 2003-4. This would suggest that softer going puts more of an emphasis on fitness and does not allow better runners to win on 'raw ability'. In the last week we have seen a number of turf races developing into slogs runs in times 7 or 8 seconds above standard.
As a general point it is also worth noting that in all years 2002-5 the all-weather races have nearly all been won by those with previous runs. This obviously means removing the very earliest race(s) where all of the runners are on debut. In 2005 only Rod Millman's Azygous has won on the AW beating (very moderate) runners with previous experience. He represents the trainer who has had his 2yos much readier on debut than any other trainer in 2005. The general inference could be that a tiring AW surface such as Southwell puts the emphasis on fitness and race readiness in a similar way to softer turf.
However, softer going is not the only possible reason for a lower number of debut winners. In 2004 useful+ 2yos like Bright Moll (M. Bell, no runner in 2005 yet) and Prince Charming (J. Gosden, no runner in 2005 yet) managed to win on debut on softer going because they were that much better than the opposition even though they put up performances well below their best. The next sections consider the quality of the runners so far in 2005.
3. 70+ Performances and Prospects
In 2005 we have seen strong early season performances from Rod Millman's Makabul & Phantom Whisper. And Danjet has looked a speedy early season filly that David Evans will run in Listed and Group 3 races (and may get places in the early races). However these runners represent the two trainers who have had their 2yos most forward in 2005 and have provided 5 of the 11 debut winners.
Leaving aside those runners from R. Millman the season has not seen a strong debut performance by a runner that has the profile to be superior. The best have probably been from Salute Him who did well to beat a Millman runner at Folkestone and River Kintyre who was the first newcomer to finish in the Brocklesby. Cool Creek showed hints of better ability in a chaotic debut at Kempton and better than his trainer's other debuts so far. A range of other runners with solid profiles have run but none have made a strong debut and there have been disappointments such as Puskas.
The next section considers how the performances so far compare to the previous seasons.
In 2002 by the same time in the season we had already seen Dusty Dazzler (rated 89) & The Lord (100) from W. Turner; Mazepa (100) from N. Callaghan; Wunders Dream (Group 2 winner) from J. Given; Bravo Ragasso (89) from M. Channon; New Foundation (91) from R. Hannon; and also useful types like Willhewiz, Valiant Romeo, Redding, Iron Lad and Monsieur Boulanger. All of these runners had produced strong performances on debut or STO by this stage of the season.
In 2003 we had already seen Prince Of Denmark (94) from R. Hannon; Traytonic (95) from W. Turner; Red Power (90) from P. Blockley; Cop Hill Lad (97) from R. Millman; Romancero (99) from M. Wallace; Mac Love (100) from M. Channon; Shank On Fourteen (90) from K. Burke and solid winners like Mirasol Princess (K. Ryan) and Promenade (M. Bell). All of these runners had already won or produced strong debuts by this stage of the season.
In 2004 we had already seen Prince Charming (102) from J. Gosden; Berkhamsted (98) from J. Osborne; Dance Night (95) from B. McMahon; Bunditten (89) from A. Reid; Dario Gee Gee (89) from K. Ryan and solid winners like Lady Filly, Next Time Around, Cornus. All had either won or placed second on debut. We had also seen debuts from Tremar (96) & Polly Alexander (86).
In 2005 have we already seen the same range of quality by this early stage?, and if not, why not? Leaving aside the R. Millman runners who are untypical in their readiness it is worth considering the position in 2005. Which of the other debut winners in 2005 - Wovoka, Wizby, Salute Him, Aboyne, Lord Jack Flash, Sounds Simla & The Bear are likely to be a 'Prince Charming'? Or even a 'Lady Filly'? I'd be interested in other views but other than Salute Him they don't look a strong group. Wovoka has been beaten STO (although looking not to stay in a slog of a race), Aboyne cost the minimum bid at the sales, Sounds Simla had been entered in a seller and The Bear is related to a long line of early 2yo winners that did not develop (although he looked to have more build than his previous half sister).
Other than Danjet the runners that finished second on debut are not an exciting group either unless you believe 2yos like The London Gang, The History Man, Fusili, Glasnas Giant & Jaassey are going to develop to be 85+ winners.
The lists above of good 2yos that made early season debuts are interesting
because they highlight another likely reason for the lack of quality so
far in 2005. A number of 'usual suspect' 2yo trainers as well as
others who get occasional good 2yos have not featured in 2005 yet. The
following table summarises some of these :-
| 2005 Season | 2002-4 Seasons
Good Early 2yo Debuts |
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| R. Hannon | 4 runners, one place in a 5 runner race | New Foundation, Monsieur Boulanger, Prince Of Denmark, Cornus [10 wins in 70 races] |
| W. Turner | Two minor wins, both rating below 70 | Dusty Dazzler, The Lord, Traytonic, Lady Filly [7 wins] |
| K. Burke | No win, No place | Shank On Fourteen [4 wins] |
| BA/ES McMahon | No win | Dance Night, Redding [3 wins] |
| K. Ryan | One STO win in Southwell AW race | Dario Gee Gee, Mirasol Princess [2 wins] |
| M. Bell | No Runner | Bright Moll, Promenade [2 wins] |
| P. Cole | No Runner | [2 wins] |
| J. Given | No Runner | Wunders Dream [2 Wins] |
| N. Callaghan | One unplaced run | Mazepa [1 win] |
| J. Gosden | No Runner | Prince Charming [1 win] |
To add to the above table would be the following trainers with solid 2yo records such as D. Barron (no runner), M. Wallace (no winner), D. Loder (no runner), C. Dwyer (no runner). In total this means that a range of trainers who supplied more than half of the early 2yo winners and most of the better quality in the period 2002-4 have managed 3 minor wins in total in 2005.
In summary, a number of the trainers with larger strings have either not had a better 2yo or have not run them yet. The trainers who have replaced bigger stables from the above table and had winners in 2005 are not those that normally have a range of better 2yos.
The sires represented in the early winners varies hugely from year to year, much more than the trainer list. The main success so far has been the sire Makbul who gets limited opportunities but has long been a 'cult' sire. He has already had three winners of four races but more notably these have included the best two performances from Phantom Whisper and Makabul. It is also worth recording that it's no accident that these winners have been trained by one of his biggest fans in Rod Millman.
Five race have been won by 2yos by first season sires and similar in number to 2004. Mull Of Kintyre has made a good start with two winners plus the Brocklesby fourth. Three others have had minor winners - City On A Hill, Hunting Lion & Rambling Bear.
6. Prospects for Newmarket & Newbury this week
The previous sections have led to a possible conclusion that we have not seen the same range of quality runners so far in 2005 that we expect by this time in the season. The coming week sees the first major meeting of the flat season at Newmarket with three 2yo races. There is also a meeting at Newbury on Friday.
The 2yo races at the Newmarket Craven meeting tend to be of variable quality but usually feature a number of, at least, useful 2yos. In 2004 for example we saw the debuts of Blue Dakota (Royal Ascot winner) & Siena Gold (Supersprint winner). If we have seen less of the quality runners so far then we should have a better chance of seeing some quality 2yos this week.
The table summarises the entries for some of the trainers who are either
behind their normal schedule or can get useful 2yos. The horses names are
linked to their individual pages which give their pedigrees and sales prices.
| Trainer | Entries This Week |
| R. Hannon |
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| M. Channon |
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| B. Meehan |
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| M. Bell |
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| P. Chapple-Hyam |
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| N. Callaghan |
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| B. Hills |
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| P. Cole |
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| M. Magnusson |
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| J. Toller |
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