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We are at one of the most interesting times of the year for juvenile racing.
After the early sparring over 5f, mostly by horses with limited prospects
the 6f races have started and more of the major stables are selecting 2yos
to run. It's still relatively early in the season so that with a wide range
of stables the 2yos chosen to make their debuts now will be the competitive
ones. Given that Royal Ascot is only just over a month away if you have
a juvenile you think is up to that standard they will run FTO over the
next 2-3 weeks. In 2008, the wet and cold spring has given way to better
weather just prior to this period and some stables are coming into form,
most notably Mick Channon's.
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With that background Thursday has two Class 3 maidens which regularly produce
better class runners. The York 6f maiden can be pretty mixed in
quality but the good ones usually show up well although not always making
the places. In 2003 Pearl Of Love (Chesham Stakes winner and Italian Group
1 victor) was second FTO in the race behind a David Loder debut special.
2004's race was run on testing ground which really mixed them up. In third
was Capable Guest who went on to wangle a volunteer third in the Coventry
(and whose current OR is a good indication of as good as he actually ever
was) and who is that little chestnut thing in 7th? Oh yes, Wilko, just
ok here but won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile when taken to the US
and to a dirt surface.
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In 2005 Aiden O'Brien won with Marcus Andronicus who went on to place in
a classic at 3yo and the Royal Lodge victor Leo was back in fourth. Those
close to them proved handicappers at best to make the point about having
to 'read' maiden race results in more detail than just looking at the finishing
positions and distances (and talking about 'franking' in one-size manner).
2006 was a bit empty with an Aiden O'Brien 'test the opposition' type (as
opposed to an outright useful one) beaten at odds-on by later Listed winner
Sadeek. Last year's race (Result)
shows the usual mix of solid handicappers and the odd good one. Feared
In Flight won and has probably proved the best 7f+ type overall. The best
horse was Captain Gerrard who faded to midfield after setting a brisk pace.
His trainer has said in interview this year that he took 2-3 runs to understand
that horse as a 2yo and hence the 6f debut. He improved when he was made
into a tractable 5f frontrunner having run too freely over a stiff 5f STO
and then run poorly when they tried to hold him up third go.
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This year's race has the usual cast to run through. Is O'Brien's Four
Star General a high class one or a 'strength test'? He ran unplaced
FTO but the trainer doesn't do strong debuts in Ireland and his runners
this year have looked behind even his usual standard. As you expect he
has a terrific pedigree and one which is just about ok for 6f now. In recent
seasons though his 2yos have been poor value in maidens in Britain in the
last 3 years. He's 5 from 25 which is a 20% strike rate and as many as
17 of them have made the first three. But it's a loss overall and 3 have
been beaten at odds-on and 7 at less than 2/1 so the 'Market' still has
that 'Big Ogre' factor built in. A horse to take seriously who ought to
place but at compressed odds and worth spending some time looking for an
alternative.
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Jeremy Noseda has received plenty of coverage in recent previews so the
significance of the time of year should be none to most. He's 3 from 3
so far with debuts over 5f and his record is as good over the last few
years with 6f debuts. Awinnersgame is another very expensive one
for an important owner and Noseda seems as 'sure' with debuts at present
as he ever has been. Which means that his runner comes out top on profile
but with the 3 from 3 record and Dettori riding he isn't likely to be a
value SP either.
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Kevin Ryan has a solid record with 6f debuts but a little less good than
with 5f ones. He's in the period when we should see some better debuts
from him and he has introduced a good type here recently with Sadeek's
2006 win. That followed a 20/1 place by a debut runner in 2005 who proved
to be a frustrating maiden. Cook's Endeavour is just average on
profile with a solid enough US pedigree but was left unsold for a low price
as a yearling. A possible longer priced placer but not winner material
on profile. The 'Market' would be an indicator here if he were supported
at 6/1 and under.
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Mark Johnston isn't in for with his 2yos yet and runs Shaweel who
ducked a maiden engagement at Yarmouth earlier in the week. The trainer's
record in the race has gone downhill since he won it in 2002 with Royal
Beacon (STO and 6th in the Coventry) and had Pearl Of Love second in 2003.
Three well beaten runners in the last three years all for the Maktoum family.
On the evidence so far he shouldn't be competitive for the win.
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Richard Fahey has made a good start with his 2yos over 5f with 3 debut
winners and the early timing suggest his 2yos are well forward. Unlike
Noseda he shows a noticeable split between 5f & 6f debuts in his recent
record. In the period 2004-7 he is 9 from 55 with 5f debuts (above 16%
and very healthy) and 1 from 49 at 6f (a poor 2%). He has run expensive
ones like Whatyouwoodwishfor in this race before but with no placed
runner. Another on the 'likely to be poor value' list unless he really
is the 'real thing'.
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Interest in the others with Lord Shanakill making a good debut by
the trainer's standards but still producing just below average form. The
trainer is 0-21 with 6f runners at York and overall a run here doesn't
suggest his best 2yos. Tim Easterby's record with debuts this year has
been highlighted so we shouldn't expect much from Nassau Beach.
But, he does tend to run usable 2yos in the race and they usually run well
STO. This one is at the expensive end of cost for the trainer and, like
Captain Dunne in 2007, should go close to winning STO after a midfield
finish here.
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Jamie Spencer rides Reve De Soleil for Eoghan O'Neill which will
no doubt get called 'eyecatching' somewhere. Looking at the field it's
not obvious he could have got onto one of the better ones and he may be
riding this one just to be in the race so he can assess the other horses.
On pedigree he's ordinary although the trainer's record is interesting.
When he had the Fretwell 2yos his record was 4 wins and 2 places from 10
runners at the course (all run numbers). So, perhaps close to as good as
he has but the stable has less quality now he has moved from the Fretwell
Averham Park training establishment.
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In summary, Noseda and O'Brien ought to provide two of the first
three without offering any great value. Cook's Endeavour may offer the
best alternative at a longer price.
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The Salisbury Class 3 Maiden is over 5f and has at least as good
a list of previous participants as the York race. Since it is over a furlong
shorter it tends to attract more obvious sprinters (who end up in Listed
races like the National Stakes and the 5f races at Royal Ascot) along with
those with 6f+ stamina. The last two winners represent two ends of the
spectrum with Hannon's Sweepstake in 2007 a debut winner (backed from 40/1
and one of only two to go far side in a big field) and ran in the National
& Queen Mary Stakes at 5f before trying 6f. In 2006 Strategic Prince
won on debut and didn't look obvious 5f suited on pedigree. He ran in the
Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot before stepping up in distance to win Group
races at 6-7f and place in the Dewhurst. That sort of quality somewhere
in the field is typical and this year's group look well up to that standard.
[Aside - the 2000 winner who gets listed as 'Industrial Pride' is actually
Pan Jammer who won an Irish Group 3 at 2yo before going to Hong Kong and
a name refit.]
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Richard Hannon has long targeted the race and has won it twice in the last
seven years. That doesn't tell the whole story because the list of horses
he's run recently who haven't won include If Paradise (Supersprint winner,
older Listed victor), Galeota (Group 2 winner) & Assertive (Listed
winner & Group 2 placed at 2yo and still running in Group level sprints).
It's typical for him to run a much less able second string. Which means
that with Sun Ship and the filly Penny's Gift in attendance
we aren't straying from the usual plot.
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This really is an important day for Sun Ship because he looks physically
like a higher class sprinter in the mould of those the trainer usually
runs here. He has run in the type of better races that indicate he is well
up the order of stable 2yos in ability. In both runs to date he has looked
short of full fitness but he has such a heavy build it may be that he will
always look that way. He has run on soft ground both times which haven't
been real speed tests and he hasn't seen the race out in the final furlong
(which you expect from his build and apparent fitness level on the easy
ground). Here, he has firmer going and two runs under his belt and we ought
to see what he can really do. If he ends up looking a bit one paced and
not seeing the race out you would suspect that is what he is and he isn't
up to his looks abilitywise.
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However, he could finish second again and still run very well. Paul Cole
runs another horse with the physique to be a higher class performer with
Desire To Excel. Unlike many Cole 2yos he was very laid back and
a bit portly first time, partly because he shares Sun Ship's bulky build.
Many stable 2yos are bouncy and sweaty FTO and look in prime condition.
This one is apparently lazy at home and the racecourse run was to sharpen
him up and they weren't expecting a 'Luck Money' type debut win. He ran
well enough at Newmarket it what looked a well above average field to suggest
he should improve to a high level here. As with the Hannon methods he represents
an important owner for the yard and has been put in races which suggest
the stable think he is better class.
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Andrew Balding is like his father in that he doesn't go for 'bulk' when
buying yearlings and the one word to describe what they like is 'Neatness'.
Medium horses in all dimensions, in proportion overall and with solid movement
and athleticism. You aren't going to see much of 'big bulls' that gets
Hannon senior all misty eyed. Once they have prepared them to go to the
races with the manes plaited up neatly you can pick a Balding 2yo out of
the line without much difficulty. Which is where The Desert Saint
entered at Kempton, look at his picture and he fits the description and
with enough build to shift himself adequately. He ran well on debut without
looking like a real 5f horse and finished better after being outpaced early
in the short straight. A solid type who should compete well here but would
need both of the top two on profile to fall short of expectations to win.
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Raiph Beckett runs two with the first string looking to be the colt Russian
Art for the Green family. If he is a better one he ought to compete
strongly off a normal preparation but the trainer hasn't targeted this
race before and Seb Sanders isn't here. His debut runner for the same owner
last year finished a promising 4th but proved to be a sub OR70 filly who
took until 3yo to win a minor race. Overall, competing with the Balding
runner for the places seems more likely today.
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Interest in the others with Stuart Kittow having another debut runner with
Macdillon. The later runners tend to run well on debut whatever
the SP so another to assess against that background as we learn more about
the trainer's approach.
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And finally, it's a pretty expensive son of Makbul (32,000gns), out of
a Group 3 winning dam who produced a Listed 5f 2yo with her first foal
last year. Who is going to buy him at the sales? No points for guessing
Rod Millman who runs Mattamia who is that son of Makbul. Given the
sibling and the female side 32,000 wasn't a lot of money but he ought to
be a usable 5f 2yo if he's anything. But, the trainer has stopped doing
debut wins in the last couple of years and they used to be in early season
anyway. He hasn't had a runner in this race since two unplaced efforts
in 2002-3. A midfield run looks in prospect.
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In summary, a high class race a possibility with two good contenders
and The Desert Saint a lively second tier runner to add some depth. B2yoR
would like to see Sun Ship prove himself the higher class type and win
by a couple of lengths but perhaps there is a bit of the Hannon 'rose tinteds'
in that.
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