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The two mile Group races at Ascot on Saturday brought results which did
seem to be steps forward from the level of Group events we have seen so
far. The best 5f sprinter in the year is often the winner of either the
Molecomb Stakes (Goodwood in early August) or the Flying Childers (Doncaster
St Leger meeting). This year the Goodwood race was won by the colt Finjaan
who hasn't run since. He beat Bonnie Charlie who has moved up to
6f in two later runs and has been beaten by Elnawin (won a moderate
Group 3 over 6f next time) in the DBS St Leger Sales race. Behind him that
day were Damien (4th in the 6f Group 2 Mill Reef) & the filly
Anglezarke.
She went on to place in the Flying Childers before a defeat on heavier
going. The winner on that race - Madame Trop Vite - has looked a
progressive filly without being a 5f 'speedball' and stays on strongly
like a 6f runner. We haven't seen a 5f performer this year to match Kingsgate
Native or even Fleeting Spirit & Captain Gerrard who, as a group, proved
themselves as superior to the average Group types at 5f and have gone on
to win at Group level at 3yo. Finjaan can still prove he is a few notches
better than he has shown but would need to to be able to match that group
of three.
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The 6f events have given us consistent races between closely matched types
who, in general, look unlikely to make the jump to normal Group level at
3yo. The best 2yo in Britain by Official Ratings is Shaweel who
won the Gimcrack Stakes from a moderate set and his ranking depends on
a run over 7f in Ireland when he chased home Aidan O'Brien's Mastercraftsman
while pulling clear of the rest of the field. That looked a staying performance
with both runners finishing tired, and slowly and wasn't that convincing.
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The 7f Group races in Britain for males have produced wins for Firth
Of Fifith (massively assisting by a pace bias and suspect form in beating
Shaweel among others), Orizaba (a solid win in the Vintage Stakes
with Firth Of Fifth well beaten, Lord Shanakill & Sayif placed &
Shaweel in 5th before his improvement kicked in and Soul City 4th who has
won a Group 3 in France and the Goffs Sales race in Ireland over last weekend)
& Sri Putra (a slowly run Solario Stakes which wasn't strong
form).
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The 8f Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot on Saturday saw Firth Of Fifth
(Picture)
& Orizaba (Picture)
in the field along with Patrician's Glory (Picture) who had finished
close up in that slowly run Solario. The trio were well beaten by three
colts who, in paddock review terms, were just plain bigger and better quality
than those three and the difference between high class horses and 'good
2yos' was visible. Cityscape (Picture)
had made a big impact in winning a novice race by 9 lengths and is very
tall on the plus side. He is narrow bodied and not the most neatly put
together. He tapers away behind and his neck and hea dlook a little oversized.
He may grow into his frame but you suspect he will always be a bit gawky.
But, his size and athleticism lifts him above the ordinary good 2yos. On
Our Way (Picture)
is a similar taller, galloping, type like Cityscape although he looks a
bit more powerful at present. Both ran well and dusted aside the 'pure
2yo' Firth Of Fifth and beat Orizaba less comfortably but both look more
likely to improve as 3yos rather than just 2yos.
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The winner was Jukebox Jury (Picture)
who has finished behind Soul City twice in France since winning
on debut at Goodwood. He looked in excellent physical condition with a
really positive attitude for the day. Less of a taller galloper than Cityscape
& On Our Way but bigger than Orizaba and more strongly built and neatly
made, as a 2yo, than the first pair. The final result looked a good demonstration
of how the Group races up to that point for the males had produced solid
form but still with plenty of room for better types to fit into or for
strong improvers to separate themselves from the existing standard.
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So far, so dandy. The 'Powerball' Paddock Reviewer would be nodding away
as the big lads stretched away from the smaller ones. Then, along comes
Rainbow
View to add a bit of murkiness. The Fillies' Mile had the winners
of the two 7f Group races for females in it and both were unbeaten - Rainbow
View (Picture,
easy Sweet Solera stakes winner from Minor Vamp for won the fillies' Goffs
Sales race for Richard Hannon on Sunday to add to the win by Soul City)
& Fantasia (Picture,
comfortable win in a slowly run Prestige Stakes). In the lead up to the
race John Gosden had raised the issue of whether Rainbow View might be
'just a 2yo' and lacking scope to develop much physically to 3yo (remember
the 20lb improvement to stand still). By her presentation on the day you
could understand his point and she isn't likely to grow much although she
will strengthen.
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More worrying though was her temperament. In 'scope' terms she has already
shown she has unusual ability and doesn't have to improve much to be competitive
to win the 1,000 Guineas. How much she can develop through the 3yo season
is more problematic. But, having been saddled in the stables and brough
straight to the Parade Ring (i.e. not spending 15-20 minutes in the pre-parade
area as most of the fillies did) she was covered in sweat and very buzzy.
The following two pictures (A
& B),
of moderate quality, show her jogging to the course entrance unattended
by a handler (very rare) and the jockey has, in effect, given up trying
to get a lead and seeing whether she would settle a little just between
him and her.
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In 'Classical' wellbeing & behaviour Paddock terms she had to be a
negative,. Sweating between her legs? Where wasn't she sweating.... Now,
pressing Classical Paddock picking to find negatives based on single factors
is the quick way to lose your money. Spend your days laying 'sweaters'
based on that alone will lose your bank quite quickly. Sweating, along
with two handlers, no handler (as in this case), buzzy behaviour, etc,
etc. are clues to look at the horse as a whole. Is it still focussed
on the job of being a racehorse. If it is then it can still run well, and
can still win. If the focus has gone then there is no chance and laying
the horse is fine. At present, Rainbow View is a tough terrier who wants
to race and wants get on with the job. But, despite all the minor pyrotechnics
you could still see in her eyes and demeanour that she knew what the job
was and wanting to do it.
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In the race this still shows and if you watch a replay of her in the straight
as she cruises up to the leaders, keen but under restraint, you can almost
see her wanting to be allowed to get on with it and go on. Against better
fillies it took her a bit of time to get to the front but she was pulling
clear at the finish (Picture).
Her lack of physical scope is clearly an issue but she has shown such a
high level of ability already that the others probably have 10lbs of improvement
to make to get near her even if she stands still. Grow just a touch and
strengthen and she ia already at the right level and waiting for the others
to catch up with their bags of 'scope'. Whether she stays focussed on just
wanting to be a racehorse is a trickier question and should keep the paddock
guys busy.
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[Aside - James Willoughby apparently posed the question last week as to
whether the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas races were actually the 'Last' 2yo
races and natural precocity could still give you an advantage over the
more development types in the trials in April and the early May races.
The trials can certainly be won by sub-Group standard horses who are wound
up for early season and then drift away during the season. Richard Hannon
regularly wins the trials with these types by having them at the top of
their condition first time.
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An interesting addition to the debate would be the development of Henrythenavigator
& Raven's Pass through the year. If you follow form only and take no
interest in the on-course view then the latter's win at Ascot on Staurday
was because of being ridden closer to the pace. The B2yoR paddock guy who
was there has seen the pair on all their British runs this year and would
have a different view. Henrythenavigator hasn't really changed from the
physical type he was in early May when he won the 2,000 Guineas. He isn't
one that comes up shiny in the coat and tends to sweat and not look great
but he hasn't grown much either. The Raven's Pass that was at Ascot on
Saturday was nothing like the one that was at Newmarket in the Spring.
He was getting Paddock Reports with 'Light Framed' in and below average
condition notes. At Ascot he was a 'size' bigger in all dimensions and
looked to have grwon into a much more powerful individual over the season.
His condition was also close to the best. The trainer had said he wouldn't
be at full fitness because the Breeders' Cup was his main target but this
didn't show and he looked solidly fit.
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Rather than the 'Form' view the Paddock view would be that the four races
this year with Raven's Pass gradually getting closer to HenryTN and then
dealing quite comfortably with him on Saturday has matched one, precocious,
horse standing still while another has carried on developing and gone past
him.]
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