BRITISH 2yo RACING - 2015 Season Race Result
	Race 2 : Sat, March 28th Doncaster 1:25, 5f Conditions (4), "The Brocklesby"
2015 Season Home 2015 Results	[Est] is the B2yoR Rating. Green indicates a 55+ level, Cream between 30 & 54, Pink less than 30. Wnr = previous/LATER 2yo Winner. Letter is Race Type. Hf = Position at Halfway. Green indicates making places to the finish. GOING TIME RcPc Video VP GGS 62.7 [Compare] 1 Link Link

SUMMARY

Going changed to G after Race 3, this was Race 1. GGS at 08:45am from GS on Decs. Some rain forecast before noon. Limited amount of rain in the morning & no updating of the report from CoC. Strong SW Wind = Close to a Direct Headwind.    Quote from a Website user on the day before the race = " I was watching RUK and one of the northern pundits responded to a point made by a colleague about the scarcity of Johnston runner in 2015 at that time. He stated with some certainty that Johnston was fully concentrating on the very large influx of 2yo's (apparently high class) into the yard for 2015.". Looking at the MaJo website he has 122+ x 2yos listed for 2015 and probably about 20 above the total listed in the last 2 years. The possibility of an unusually early start for MaJo had come with the 5 Day Entries when he had 7 horses on the lists. This a much larger number than (probably) any previous year. The other 4 Entered were = Muatadel & Tawakkol (CHFD), Sixth Sense (DONC) & Rosy Morning (KTNA). Johnston won all 3 races on the Day and that sort of early sweeping up not seen since Bryan McMahon retired (previously Jack Berry used to win most of the early races in some years). MaJo's earliest debuts in previous years have spread across the whole ability range from OR50s season maidens to Group class 2yos. Look back at the 2012 Season and his first debut was Heavy Metal who faded to 8th in the Brocklesby but won the Group 2 Richmond Stakes in August. He dropped down to OR79 as a 4yo but won a Dubai handicap off OR97 recently. MaJo followed that debut in 2012 with 2 x FTO wins one week later. By the filly Baileys Jubilee who won a conditions race STO in April and placed 3rd in a poor Cheveley Park. She did not win again in Britain after the April juvenile races and well beaten off OR90 on her last 3yo run before retiring. The other FTO success was by Storm Moon who also won STO and tried higher level with no success. He got up to OR95 as a 2yo and got back to winning when around OR85 at 3yo. This season MaJo has started similarly and he seems to have another 'set' of early starters to back up the 3 opening day wins. On Profile the 4 who were entered for Mar 28th but did not run look a better quality set overall. Which opens the question of how much the 3 x FTO wins for MaJo was down to higher class horses and readiness and how much down to unusually weak opposition? Looking at the 3 races then you have no Channon reps, 1 x ordinary maiden type for Hannon, 1 x poor filly for Evans and just a possibly sub open-maiden level colt for Fahey. None of the races having a better looking one from a larger stable. Inclined to think this was a 'slow' Start to the season and MaJo has got better ones ready than those we saw and nothing better class from other trainers. To make the point the Brockleby winner in 2014 went on to place in Group races and the winner of the KTNA fillies' maiden was top rated 2yo Tiggy Wiggy. The KTNA maiden in 2012 had Queen Mary winner Ceiling Kitty (Dascombe) as the runner-up and the type of 'better one from a larger stable' that did not seem visible on-the-day. The 9 x Declarations for this race was a notable small field and with most of the 'usual' sources of better early 2yos missing (Turner aside) it looked a Northern biased field made up of a ready 2yos but without strong Profiles overall. A competitive Edition but not a strong one. Worth noting that the race is down at Class 4 and despite having a sponsor was at a low Prize Money level for a Conditions race and the CHFD maiden on the Day matched the Prize Money here. For example, probably incorrect to say that Ravenhoe is better that Buratino just on the basis of one debuting in a Conditions race and the other in a maiden. Turning to the race then a Strong (around 20mph) headwind on the day. Without being a tearaway pace it was on the 'too strong' side for the conditions. With 3 horses getting behind early the 'Shape' of the other 6 developed into a leading Line-of-4 (Lo4) going hardish on the rail with Ravenhoe & First Bombardment sitting close in behind them out of the wind. A key question being how much was Ravenhoe/FB's getting to the front and going away in the last 1f from all members of the Lo4 down to them racing more efficiently and how much down to possible better ability? Inclined to mark up some of the performances given the race Shape & Pace. How good is the quality of the race overall? For example, General Alexander was green and got well behind and made ground on the first 2 home after Halfway? Putting a limit on the positive 'effect' of Rave/FB pulling away from the faders but being closed on themselves. The overall time was Slower and on Profile the first 3 home look like similar, ready early 2yos, with limited development potential. The type who are really OR70s quality but get rated over OR80 (inflated) because of the races they compete in during early season. Then lacking the full development potential to even 'stand still' (against better physical types, relative to their OR) as the WFA bar lifts up by 16-18points during the season. The sort of edition where you could see the first 5 home winning Maidens & Auctions in earlier season, and perhaps Silk Bow too if she isn't a short runner (not staying 5f). But then ending up in Nurseries having perhaps run ok in early season Novice/Cond races before the bigger horses arrive. For example you could see one of the first two home in the 'Lily Agnes' field in Early May (the 'Olympics' for early 2yos lacking scope) but obviously outgunned physically when they get in a field with a better Hannon (etc..) 5-6f sprinter. With nurseries being the future from July on and quite likely starting on too high a relative OR. Ravenhoe a believable 5f pedigree by a Sire who gets a lot of precocious 2yos. Only cost £16k at the Sales and presumably on the smaller side. The Work picture of him on the MaJo website leaving you neither under- nor over-, just whelmed. A standard issue ready early 2yo lacking some size. Picture of him in a rug in the Parade Ring suggesting that take was ok. Got tucked away in Second Rank (2R) out of the headwind but needing niggling along before halfway. No evidence of a strong effort 2f out and just an extended lower level plugging on and responding willingly when challenged. Inclined to think 'job done' and needs to win a 2nd race 'soon' because he is in that 'real OR70s' bracket and needs to grow as well as strengthen up to be longer term competitive at a higher level. Suspect Buratino & Rah Rah are better quality. A little more interest in what level First Bombardment is and he seemed less straightforward overall than Ravenhoe and also travelled better through the race. Out of a mare who was an OR70s sprint 2yo but has failed to produce a winner in 4 previous foals. By a sire who gets regular early sprint 2yos. Looks like a ready sprint 2yos in his Parade Ring picture and with a bit more bulk than Ravenhoe. Broke well and hauled back to sit 2R and vied with Just That Lord for travelling best in the race. But, he showed an upright Front action through the race which included holding his head up and looking down. When in 2R this made him look as if he was wary racing so tight behind others. But, you could also suggest he looked less than fully committed when asked to make his effort 1.5f out and when asked to put his head in front of Ravenhoe (racing head down). Gave the impression he is a better horse than Ravenhoe but a niggle over his willingness. If it was just inexperience then he ought to rate higher than Ravenhoe. It also seems a good sign that FB was such an early debut for his trainer who has only had a single run before May in his first 5 seasons. General Alexander finishing a plugging on 3rd without ever being in the race. Positive mark for the way he kept at it but another looking smaller and a bit less length than FB. Another with an ok Sire but with a disappointing dam as a producer. Trainer Ellison generally doesn't get strong FTOs and his only earlier season FTO win since 2008 was with Northgate Lad (who was an NR in this event in 2014 after they brought the wrong grey horse to the course). NLad winning FTO but 2 months later so not adding any evidence for early FTO prep abilities by Ellison. GA's owner targets 2yo racing and Ellison branching out to fit in. GA too green here to keep up but did ok to stick at and make ground on the leading pair in the last 1.5f. Presume he is another usable early winner but lacking scope. Both GA & FB entered for the Scottish Brocklesby 6 days later and would prefer FB if you could be sure he would take his 'mental handbrake' off. In a Brocklesby lacking some of the usual landmarks a Bill Turner runner for owner breeder Teversham more like it (The Lord 2002, etc). Just That Lord taller than the first 3 home and a bit narrower and another with an Upright front. Didn't look fully fit and missed the break a bit when you expect a real Turner early winner to be hard fit and breaking first and making 1-2L for free. Made an extra effort before Halfway to get back from the Slower Start and join the Lo4 (i.e. into the Pace of the race and running out wide in the Headwind). Did best of the 4 pacemakers and looked a possible winner when he went 1L+ clear in the 4th 1f (better forward effort than the winner). Inclined to think the lack of full fitness and running into the Pace/Wind earlier made his finishing position look worse. A niggle over the slight light framedness but looks solid OR70+ and a bit more 'Frame' than the first 3 home if he can strengthen up more. Would expect it to need a strong debut by an OR85+ one to beat him STO in an ordinary maiden, say on the AW at LNGA. Given seems to be a 'Bipolar' trainer with his 2yos in that he either has whizz bang sprint 2yos who can run well on debut or longer term 3yo stayers who do not win at 2yo. His early 5-6f runners can win FTO if they are a bit better class (OR84 say). Sir Dudley does not have a 5f Early pedigree but physically looks a smaller ready one (try comparing his picture with that of FB). A bit green overall but enough nous to run in Front Rank but the Head up and to the right and looking a bit clueless when asked to kick 2f out and lost ground instead (lack of pace and need 6f+?). Relatively expensive in this field but lacking some Frame size and being pressed into 5f early because of that? See how he develops rather than looking to follow STO. Given's other runner - Silk Bow - the only filly in the race and at much longer odds. Another smaller and ready one and looked to have more natural pace then SirD. Always going a bit too freely and pulled herself to the lead before Halfway. Ok effort 2f out in the context of this group and 2nd behind JTLord until fading very quickly before 1f out which allowed SirD to wander back past her. If she can stay 5f and race more settled then OR60s fillies' race winner. Teversham another with a Solid sprint 2yo sire but a dam who rarely produces British winners and none below 8f. Also smaller and probably smaller than the first 3 home for eg. Got a very slow start and made perhaps 3-4L back to be just 2.5L off the lead at Halfway (sectional times would presumably show that relative extra effort). Not a surprise to see him fading by 1.5f out given that early effort. Check again to see if better than some sort of OR50s. Tim The Taxi a very cheap buy and the first Turf season 2yo debut the trainer. Ok preparation and broke well and led so the trainer showed she can prepare one. Presume lack of size/ability meant TTT headed and pushed along before halfway and left behind in the last 1f. See how he goes in a very early seller. Trainer Dixon won this race in 2014 and his horses tend to show what ability they have FTO. Which meant Rupert Boy as a 26k one by new sire Frozen Power of some interest in this competitive group on profile. But, looking a similar smaller size in this group and not showing what he might be capable of. Driven along from early on and losing ground and hanging away from the others. Never stopped completely but hard to judge whether it was inexperience or cussedness and inclined not to give him any leeway given the size. Also given that the trainer hasn't shown he can develop 2yos well from debut. £10,000 guaranteed For 2yo Weights colts & geldings 9st 3lb, fillies 8st 12lb Penalties for each Class 4 race won 4lb, for each Class 3 race won 6lb, for each Class 1 or 2 race won 8lb (penalties cumulative and maximum penalty 10lb) Entries 19 pay £ 50 Penalty value 1st £6,469.00 2nd £1,925.00 3rd £962.00 4th £481.00

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