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Chelmsford 6:30, 5f Maiden (Fillies') (5) |
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| Horse | SP | [EST] | LB | Run | Wnr | Shp | Trainer | Dw | Hf | LBL | Run Notes | ||||
| 1 | Silk Bow | 8 | 30.0 | - | 2 | J. G. Given | 6 | 1.0 | BKWL Wdst, LdgLn Erl Hld, H-1+0.5f 2R 1Wd, Fre+1f FFH, Pull to LdgLn 2Wd Erl Bnd, 2WdOv, TvCmf to HS JkWait, LdgLn-1.5f, Ld-1f+ Eff, Po, poLn | ||||||
| 2 | Fashionable Spirit | 4 | 25.3 | 2.3 | 1 | M | M. Johnston | 3 | 0.5 | BOk Cent, NER, LdgLn+0.5f XF to RL, Jnd to Bnd Hold RL, TvOk to HS, Eff ins-2f Po, Ld ins-1.5f, Po, Hdd-1f+ NewChalgr, Po, po ins-0.5f | |||||
| 3 | Anwar | 0.73 | 20.8 | 3.8 | 3 | R. Hannon (Jnr) | 5 | -0.5 | BOk Wd Dv Erl SHdUp, Dv+0.5f Resp Prg Ld, XF to Bnd 1Wd 1Clr, Dv to HS Po & Chalgd, Hdd ins-1.5f, Po, po-1f, Fd ins-0.5f | ||||||
| 4 | Princess Kodia | 5 | 20.1 | 4.0 | 1 | M | B. J. Meehan | 2 | 4.2 | BAwk-1 Ins P-2, Dv Erl Resp, Last to Bnd 1Wd HgR to 3WdOv Nins, HgR to HS Dv, Po-1.5f+, po-1f, HgL ins-1f, FdLt, Small | |||||
| 5 | Memyselfie | 16 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 1 | D. Shaw | 1 | 2.5 | B-2 RL, Dv Erl Resp, Allow XFr+0.5f & 2R RL, VeerRH to Bnd 2Wd Hauled back to RL, DvHf, Outpcd-2f+, RLWL to HS RL Alone, po HgL, Fd-1f | ||||||
| 6 | Matilda Gleam | 50 | -27.9 | 19.9 | 1 | L. Williamson | 4 | 5.0 | Hooded Stalls B-3, Dv Erl STTR, Resp+0.5f Fre & Pull to Prg, 3Wd to Bnd VeerRH to 8WdOv, SAdf to HS Wd, po HgL, Fd-1f+ MvAwk | ||||||
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Medium+ WSW Wind = Helpful on the Bend, 1/4+ Tailwind from Left in the HS. === Pre Race VRev === Fashionable Spirit expensive at 85k but always worth reminded oneself about Silent Evidence and the full sibling cost 200k the year before and achieved nothing at 2yo. Why only 85k? You could turn it around and ask. Useful to have a yearling video of FS to start putting some Visual clues into the Model to breathe some life into the Numbers. Also a reminder to NEVER think reducing everything to Numbers means you have 'cracked it'. FS looks a specific 'Type' in the Video and she seems to be neatly enough made in that type. A short one and a compact body. Deep front and deep enough behind and moves in a balanced way at the walk Given her lack of range but ok strength she needs to be a 5f sprinter. One 'Alarm' that keeps ringing is to check whether the strength and the close-up up nature of the Video is not hiding the fact she is a strong 'pony'. And that might explain the only 85k. A look at her Work picture on the MaJo website suggests she is smaller but not painfully small. She looks in lesser condition and perhaps even using a bit more range in front than you might have imagined. A middling sort of take overall and given the huge variability in MaJo debut performances hard to place her. A couple of Paddock Shots before the race on ATR would clear up a lot of the doubts and complete 'the Story' so far. What's that? About a 10% chance, more likely to be showing adverts like they were for the first 2f of the second race from BATH last week. Interesting to set the Yearling Video of Princess Kodia running alongside that of FS. At the top level they seem similar body shapes and types. But PK is a small one, typical 'Little Bear' by the sire. FS deeper and stronger than PK and seems a better mover with PK mostly balanced but a bit of trudge or mistime behind at the walk because of being up behind. On looking at the two videos FS should overpower PK and be a better mover if she has enough nous. After watching the PK video felt an urge to Upgrade the FS Profile rating. But left it, no Ad Hoc changes - stick to the Checklist/Algorithm and keep these thoughts for improvements for later. ===== It will take years, decades perhaps, to change things but there must be a project/website say, where people could put up their favourite bits of Pundit Lite nonsense. At least get it all in one place, name and shame, see where the holes are and what types of lax (non-)thinking people drop into. Particularly enjoyed the bit in the Sporting Life preview for this race which said - "[Anwar].. gets another chance in this given Silk Bow never figured in the Brocklesby at Doncaster on her debut". Ok, that would be a different Silk Bow perhaps than the one that led for a lot of the race and was still disputing second towards the last 1f? Have you checked on the form for the race at all? ====== First Pass thought = suddenly the Brocklesby looks like a 'Key Race'. Always learning and trying to get less and less wrong, rather than believe you can nail Right. In general, it is never as good as you and, but never as bad either. Get down of that ledge, Now. === Post VRev === Fastest time of the 4 x 5f races run here this year. Assisted by a helpful tailwind as was the second fastest time on March 29th (stronger wind). Two slow times in between with Headwinds from the opposite direction. A good pace here to assist the quicker time. Trainer Given tends to either have 5f 2yos who can win or backward ones that cannot (or do not run at all). The better 5f types have competed to win in the past and FTO wins possible. He ran two pretty expensive ones in the Brocklesby who finished 5th/7th and both have now won STO. Silk Bow ran better than 7th sounds and showed ok pace to lead but faded quickly on softer turf. Looking a touch bigger and stronger here than Anwar and settling just well enough to travel best in the race despite running 2 wide around the bend. Solid effort to go clear and a mid 70s sprinter.. Fashionable Spirit a touch shorter than Anwar but deeper front and stronger. Fitting into the question asked pre race as a smaller but stong sprinter. Enough nous to compete well here and willing attitude to head Anwar in the HS and lead with the Jk on SBow wating to make his final effort. Unable to hold the effort of the winner and lacking some scope. Ok 70+ bur need to assess the quality of an Open Maiden field to decide whether she could win it. Rather than be a certainty to convert STO. Anwar had run to moderate form levels when placing in two Slow Time KTNA maidens. Left behind by the one solid 75+ horse she has met before. Smaller size and 70+ but not Open Maiden level. Which makes her being odds-on favourite here a mix of common errors the Market makes in assessing this type of 2yo race. For example, ignore physical types & scope completely, assess form as placed-form-as-good without checking it, assume Hannon is an Alchemist, or Midas, rather than a top class trainer, assess unplaced-form-as-bad without checking the circumstances & race dynamics, give up thinking early and do not test out other options beyond Hannon being God, etc. Anwar perhaps running a bit free to get to the lead with Hanagan unusually active early. But, seen off in the HS again and around 70? Princess Kodia small as expected and looks limited by that. Found the bend too sharp despite her size and ran wide. Raised some effort in the HS to chase the first 3. Some sort of low-middle 60s perhaps and need a lesser fillies race to win. Memyselfie pointless to worry about much given the trainer. Smaller medium, not that neatly made with a bit of pace. Ran ok in patches but in between various issues without being a chaotic as a typical Shaw FTO. End up in Nurseries off 50s. Matilda Gleam hooded in the stalls, slow start, free running into the bend and veering wide. Hanging left in the HS then fading early and moving poorly. Apart from that it was ok. Check Size. |