BRITISH 2yo RACING Johnston Breeze Project

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background & Document Links

  This Article will be updated through the season to track the purchases made by Mark Johnston at the 2yo 'Breeze Up' sales and how they perform as 2yos. Mr Johnston wrote a long piece in the March edition of his stables 'Kingsley Klarion' magazine explaining how he would be working with James Willoughby to identify horses to buy at these sales. Mr Johnston would be funding this research having been convinced that the Willoughby approach offered an edge in buying horses at these sales.

  Willoughby is a Maths graduate who, among other things, writes a Blog entitled "The Figures Never Lie". He previously worked for Timeform and spent many years producing the Time based rating figures for the 'Racing Post'. As you would expect the core of his approach to analysing 2yos at 'Breeze Sales' rests on timing the Breezes the horses do on the track prior to the sale. In the same edition of the 'Klarion' Willoughby wrote a companion article to Johnston's and laid out some of the background to his belief in 'Breeze Sales' being 'breakable' by numerical analysis. He did not answer when prompted on Twitter to at least hint at the other 'proprietry variables' which enter into the calculations. The following quote is a key part of the Willoughby article :-

  B2yoR reviewed and made notes on a large number of 2014 Breeze Videos during that season. In early 2015 these notes were reviewed in the context of the actual performances of the 2yos on the race track (if they made it to the races). A small number of Visual factors were rated numerically as part of this retrospective analysis along with refining the phrases used to describe other Visual factors to have consistent meanings. This work will carry on developing through 2015. A major point to note is that this approach is primarily Visual and no timing of Breezes is done. A B2yoR article produced in early 2015 - Visuals AND Numbers - considers the wider issue of using Visual versus Numerical input to analyse races and horse's performance.

  Given the divergent methods being used B2yoR will be following the 'Johnston Breeze Project' in 2015 to see how the horses purchased performed. This article is the place to records the progress and results of the Project.

1.2 What is 'Success'?

Also a sub-Section which needs ongoing review to define what constitutes 'Success' for the Project. A few thoughts to start the process :-

• Johnston already has an 'above average' record at Sales of different types according to the data that Willoughby presents in his article. There are a number of issues that could be raised about the methods used to produce that data but let us assume it is usable as a Baseline Figure. If the results of the Breeze Project are similar to Johnston's usual Sales Outcomes then has the Willoughby Process added any value? How can you separate out the value of the input data from different sources?.
• The issue in the first point becomes a touch worrying when you look at the quote from Johnston after his first Breeze purchase of the year. He used the phrase that the 2yo had "ticked all the boxes". We do not know what all the other 'boxes' are but one should be Johnston's Pedigree Research and another his assessment of the 2yo as a physical specimen. Ideally, we would be able to compare the results from purchases that had all boxes ticked and those that had all boxes ticked except recording a fast Breeze Time. We are not going to get that split so are left with using the general sales outcomes for Johnston as a comparison. Which is suspect given the different types of sales involved.
• What sample size do we need to judge 'Success'? For those with long memories, would a 'Schweppes' type purchasing outcome with 2yos in their first year be a large enough sample?

1.3 Project Scope Update?

On Monday 27th April the 2yo First Selection became the first Graduate of a Breeze Sale to run in 2015. He had been Lot 1 at the first Breeze Sale of the year at Brightwells Ascot sale and was sold for £42,000 and the third most expensive Lot at the sale. New trainer Simon Crisford signed the Sales Docket for him. When he ran he was owned by Abdulla Al Mansoori (Yellow colours with Dark Blue Sleeves). After First Selection won, what amounted to a moderate 2 horse event, on debut the following Tweet followed which had echoes of the Insider Back-Slapping, without appropriate context, touched upon in the Introduction to the Visuals AND Numbers article.

The first point to note is that James Willoughby highlights one important factor which is included in his approch which is to watch the 'gallop-Out'. By which he presumably he means how strongly a horse finishes the breeze and further how it moves after the timing ends, and how long in takes to pull up. Most Breeze Videos cut out abruptly very soon after the 2yo has finished the 2f part of the Breeze. B2yoR has been collecting inforrmation about how strongly they are going up to this point.

A couple of questioning Tweet replies to James Knight asked what the excitement was about for this single win. Is the 'Figures Never Lie' approach celebrating vindication with a Sample Size of One, for example. A clarification Tweet came from Jason Hathorn (Willoughby's partner in the Breeze Project and a programmer in the Statistical functions package name 'R') :-

It suggests that Mark Johnston and Simon Crisford are both taking the same Breeze Analysis service from Willoughby & Hathorn and First Selection was selected by their analysis at some level. When interviewed after the Southwell win Crisford was very clear that the owner, Mr Mansoori, had chosen the horse and made no mention of Timings, etc. The other point to note is to check whether the two Breeze 2yos bought at Brightwells by Johnston also run in the Mansoori colours.

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    31st March (Breezes) & 1st April (Sale) = Catalogue/Results/Videos

Mark Johnston's purchases at the sale :-

Lot 8 = £52,000. Unnamed (Pastoral Pursuits ex Bayja).	Lot 12 = £26,000. Unnamed (Showcasing ex Cavallo Da Corsa).

Lot 8 - Pastoral Pursuits ex Bayja Work Picture before the Sale.

Racing Post report = "Mark Johnston has been working closely with Racing UK analyst James Willoughby, who has been looking at the statistics behind breeze-up sales, and the pair were suitably impressed by a Hillwood Stud-consigned son of Pastoral Pursuits, with the hammer coming down in their favour at £52,000. "He's a nice horse," said Johnston. "I've been working with James looking at timing analysis and, on James's advice, this horse ticked all the right boxes. "I haven't got an owner for him at the moment." The strong-looking chestnut, who was bought as a yearling at DBS for £20,000, also boasted one of the day's strongest pedigrees, being a three-parts brother to New Providence, who landed the Group 3 Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes at Salisbury last year for Hugo Palmer."

Racing Post piece on the £90,000 Top Lot (#4 Siyouni ex Alfaguara) = ""He's been bought for a client of mine and will race in Britain," said Coleman. "He came highly recommended by Katie Walsh, who was very sweet on him. "He did the fastest breeze and is by a sire who did exceptionally well with his first crop of two-year-olds. He looks a strong, precocious type and we'd like to think he could be back here in June for Royal Ascot - that's the plan. "He also has the French premiums, which gives us a different angle and we could be tempted to run him over there at some stage.""

    22nd (Breezes) & 23rd (Sale) of April. Catalogue

Mark Johnston's name did not appear in the list of Buyers for any lot and no advertisements on his website after the sale offerring recent Breeze purchases for sale. Reports via Twitter that James Willoughby and his Breeze Timing equipment were present at the sale.

For general interest the Videos below are of the Top Lot at the Sale (Left) and a good example of a How Not to Do It. All the preparation for that? :-

Lot 157 = £185,000. Unnamed (Footstepsinthesand ex Notting Hill)	Lot 37 = £7,500 & Cancelled. (Zebedee ex Vigorous). Lot 46 = Withdrawn (Tagula ex Adultress)

    14th-16th of April. Catalogue

Mark Johnston's name did not appear in the list of Buyers for any lot and no advertisements on his website after the sale offerring recent Breeze purchases for sale. Mr Johnston nearly always purchases lots under his own name, as he did at Brightwells Breeze Sale, and not through agents.

For general interest the Videos below are of the Top Lot at the Sale (Left) and one example of a 2yo who would have recorded a Slow Breeze Time (Right). The 2yo having more physical potential than Slow Time recorded would suggest but clearly an attitude problem that needs fixing. :-

TCB15 Top Lot 113	TCB15 Lot 48
Lot 113 = 850,000gns. Unnamed (War Front ex Rehear), bought by Coolmore.	Lot 48 = 40,000gns. Unnamed (Showcasing ex Dream Ahead).

    30th April (Breezes) & May 1st (Sale). Catalogue

[Details and Links need adding for 3 x Breeze Purchases advertised on Johnston Website after this sale. Lot 210 (38,000gns), Lot 214 (62,000) & Lot 272 (37,000).

    21st (Breezes) & 22nd (Sale) of May. Catalogue

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