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March 17th SUMMING UP
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A brief remender at the start of the season about the ratings in the table
above. They are based on projecting the likely performance of the 2yos
based on physical reviews (if available), trainer methods and basic pedigree
hints. As the form starts to unfold then this is factored into the profile
(i.e. pre-race) ratings.
B2yoR uses the profile for two main puposes, firstly as a model for what
to expect when doing the paddock review before the race. This enables horses
that exceed or fail to meet expectations to be identified easily and the
level of projected performance modified. The second use is to review the
result of the race against a model of a 'normal' result. This allows unusually
good or bad performances to be identified and the possible reasons, and
associated trends identified.
Two examples of how the profile will be used for this race will be instructive.
In 2005 Rod Millman had his 2yos readier than any other trainer
in the first two weeks of the season and his first six runners produced
five wins and a close second. He had a solid group of 2yos last year but
with two runners (from 3 entries) we should get an early indication both
of how ready his 2yos are and what type of group he has overall. In the
case of Global Traffic his profile rating of 52 is based on the
likelihood that he is a moderate physical type and running early because
he was bred by the trainer who wants to get him going to try to ensure
a win, even at a moderate level. If the paddock review shows him to be
a well grown individual who is running because he is unusually precocious
despite his pedigree then his profile rating would be increased. Note that
his trainer runs both moderate and solid types in early season so only
physical review will answer the question of which type he is. In 2005 Mr
Cole ran 6 of his 2yos by the end of April and only one of that group won
any race during the season.
Turning back to the race it looks to lack depth again and the standard
of performance required to win will probably be similar to 2005 so long
as the two that are clear at the top of the profile - Carlitos Spirit
& Spoof Master come up to expectations.
It is difficult to see past the start Mr Millman made in 2005 and if he
has his 2yos that cranked up this year then any of them could win over
5f. A part of me doesn't like the idea of Redback siring the first winner
of the season but Carlitos Spirit's dam has already produced two later
season 5f 2yo winners. So, as the stable preferred he sets a solid standard.
However, he probably has a good opponent in Spoof Master who is ridden
by a good 3lb apprentice rather than the usual 5-7lb claimers the trainer
normally uses. He has a sound review report from the sales and if Mr Turner
can get him readier than his recent average he would be very competitive.
In general the trainer has a poor debut win record because he has a lot
of garbage but he usually gets a FTO winner each season with his best 2yos.
Consider this list - The Lord & Dusty Dazzler in the first week of
the season in 2002, Traytonic in March in 2003, Lady Filly (at 20/1) in
March in 2004 and finally Lord Jack Flash (at 14/1) on the 4th of April
in 2005. Can you spot the consistent factor in that list? So, if Spoof
Master is one of his best two 2yos (and the hints are that he's 'up there')
then he would be ready enough to give a Millman special a good race.
Of the second rank Wrecking Crew is the stable second string and
makes less appeal than Carlito's Spirit. In this group though he has enough
positives to think he can compete for a place. Zafonical Storm's trainer
had a runner in this event in 2003 (Kuringai 4th at 3/1) and 2004 (Grand
Option 7th at 9/2) with both backed on the day and whispers of 'ready-made
2yos'. Both eventutally won as 2yos but showing only 60-65 level form and
both needed their debut runs to peak STO despite the market support. With
JP Spencer booked to ride well before the declarations were made it is
probable he will be another 'talked up' 2yo that will get some support
on the day. The trainer's record suggests he would need to be a little
above average to win FTO and it feels safer to side with Mr Millman and/or
Turner.
Global Traffic is covered above and of the others only the better of the
PD Evans trained pair (Afric Star or Go On Jessica) appeals
as likely to compete for a place. The trainer has his 2yos ready to run
to their peak on debut so if one of them can run into the high 50s or early
60s ratings they might place at a longer price. However, Mr Evans entered
6 horses and it seems that two of the lesser types have got through the
lottery to get a run. For example, if his Fasuby were runing here then
he would be a strong contender to win. Jockey SW Kelly is likely to ride
the preferred of the two but they have profiles to be similar standard
runners anyway.
The remainder - Banana Belle, It's No Problem & Love
In May have 'limited ability 2yo' written on the boxes they came in
and it would be a mojor surprise to see any of them involved at the front.
Of the three Love In May will be interesting to follow to her second run
(presumably in a seller in the next 10 days) given her trainer's regular
gambit with this type of 2yo.
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RACE QUALITY:
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The race was first run in 2003 and is now the regular first 2yo race of
the season. It has been downgraded in class over it's brief life and the
high prize fund has been poorly used given the standard of runners so far.
The early date and the 'lottery' involved in getting a run given the limit
of just 10 runners usually leads to poor to moderate fields overall. It
is instructive to consider 2005 whereby the group of horses which were
entered but did not run were much more able than the runners. The 'non-runners'
included Godfrey Street (later Group 2 winner), Makabul, Wovoka & Azygous.
The 28 entries can be split into 3 main groups with firstly 8-10 of them
owner bred and some of those retained at the sales for lowish prices. The
race commonly attracts moderate owner bred types for whom this race represents
a chance for an easy place in a Conditions race.
The remaining entries were properly sold at the yearling sales and divide
into a larger group who made poor to moderate prices with Hephaestus, Hucking
Hill & Spoof Master of this set making reasonable prices around 15,000gns.
Five of the runners made between 20-35,000gns and are therefore relatively
expensive by the standards of an early season runner. They are, in descending
order, Fast Freddie, Carlitos Spirit, Weyba Downs, El Bosque & Dumas.
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TRAINERS:
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PD Evans has 6 entries - Afric Star, Auctioneerscouk, Bathwick Princess,
Bazroy, Fasuby & Go On Jessica. He has had the runner-up in the last
two runnings of the race - I'm Aimee in 2004 and Danjet last year.
Five of his six entries were bought relatively cheaply as yearlings
although two of those are owned by their breeders (Bathwick Princess &
Bazroy) with Mr Evans doing the bidding at the sales. If he follows his
normal methods whichever of his entries gets to run will be close to the
fittest in the field and the better types amongst the six would probably
be competitive to place & possibly win.
Note that he gets most of his 2yo string ready early regardless of ability
- in the seasons 2002-5 he has run 13 2yos on debut in March with 7 winning
during the season and 6 remaining maidens. So, if 2006 is an average year
for him three of his six entries are likely winners at some level and three
are not - it is a case of trying to spot those with potential.
BR Millman has 3 entries - Carlitos Spirit, El Bosque & Wrecking
Crew. He had the third in the first running of the event in 2003 and the
winner in 2005 with Phantom Whisper (one of four entries). He made a very
early and quick start to 2005 with 5 winners by the 2nd of April and half
of the stable's 2yo successes by April 14th.
P Cole won the first running of the race in 2003 with Western Roots
who remains his only runner. He bred his entry here - Global Traffic.
JR Best has 3 entries - Hucking Hill, Urban Warrior & Weyba
Downs. He has not had a runner in the race previously but had two early
season winners (including at this venue) in 2004.
WGM Turner has two entries with Spoof Master & Three Mates.
He had his first runners in 2005 with two poor quality fillies.
JS Moore has 2 entries - Love In May & Satulagi. He has had
one runner in each of the previous three events with all of them unplaced
although two of them won their second runs soon after running in this race.
His stable had a notable increase in overall quality in 2005 and Satulagi
is an interesting entry for him having a solid US pedigree and running
for an owner who provided a number of his better 2yos last year (Mrs F.
Hay = Pink & Green colours).
M Channon has not had a runner in the race but had Wovoka as an
entry in 2005 (presumably ballotted out) who won his debut run 9 days later
at Musselburgh. He has Hephaestus entered.
AP Jarvis rarely has a 2yo runner before May and only one 2yo winner
before June in the last five seasons (Latin Review's May 29th win at the
Goodwood meeting where he regularly runs his better 2yos). He has Dumas
entered who is the fifth most expensive in the field and part owned by
his wife. In general his earlier debuts include his better 2yos but they
rarely compete strongly on their first outings.
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SIRES:
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First Season Sires :-
Auction House - Three
Mates
Invincible Spirit
- Spoof Master & Wrecking Crew
Iron Mask - Dumas
Officer - Satulagi
Redback - Carlitos Spirit
& Granny Peel
The following sires have had winners by Mid-April in recent seasons
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Averti (It's No Problem), e.g. Brocklesby victor The Lord.
City On A Hill (Hucking Hill & Love In May), first season sire
in 2005 and both his March debut runners were winners during the season
- one by April 2nd.
Compton Place (Jojesse)
Daggers Drawn (Weyba Downs)
Desert Style (Auctioneerscouk)
Fasliyev - Occasional win by mid-April although no debut winner
before May with a British 2yo.
Foxhound (Emergency Services)
Josr Algarhoud (Banana Belle) - two winners by early April in 2005
then no successes until July. No winner before June in 2004 so a mixed
record.
Piccolo (Hephaestus) - has had two STO winners on the all-weather
at Lingfield in the last three seasons with Beejay in 2003 & Piccostar
in 2005, both placed on their March debuts.
Soviet Star (Bazroy & Go On Jessica) - produced the winner of
this race in 2004 with Bunditten.
Woodborough (Afric Star)
The Following Sires have not had winners before May recently :-
Agnes World - first British 2yos in 2005 & no winner before
July 30th. His entry here - Fast Freddie - is the most expensive in the
group and his dam was a useful sprint 2yo who won her debut run on June
1st.
Aljabr - small number of British 2yos to date and no runner
before May and no win before June. Zafonical Storm's dam an older winner
in the US.
Elnadim (El Bosque) - no winner before June with first two crops
of British 2yos.
Generous (Global Traffic) - no winner before June in 2005 with his
first British 2yos since returning from Japan. Although a Derby winner
it is worth noting he won over 5f in May as a 2yo helped by his superior
ability. Global Traffic was bred by Generous' trainer out of a maiden mare
who did not run at 2yo.
Muhtarram (All Talk) - no winner in 2003-5 and no success before
June in 2002 with his last 2yo winners.
Mujahid (Distant Flash) - wins from late April onwards in first
two seasons 2004-5.
Zilzal (Urban Warrior) - unraced at 2yo himself and tends to get
2yos better from June onwards. His last winner before May was the Listed
winner Parisian Elegance in 2001 who ran to a low 60s rating to win a moderate
AW race in mid-April.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Only five of the 28 were reviewed at the sales given the relative high
number of owner breds and those bought at Irish sales. In descending rating
order they were :-
Spoof Master (15,000gns) rated 70 (140) and an average size and
solid build. An average chance of being a 2yo winner although with the
note to check how he had matured mentally - he was a nervous individual
and his attitude needed to improve.
Weyba Downs (23,000gns) rated 68 (129), slightly smaller than Spoof
Master but a similar build and slightly more compact & neat.
Hucking Hill (15,000gns) rated 67 (134), probably a little smaller
than either of Spoof Master & Weyba Downs and looked a neat, ready
& early type but with limited scope to develop.
El Bosque (23,000gns) rated 65 (91) and similar size to Hucking
Hill but a little less well built. Relatively lengthy and weak behind and
not obviously a 'speed' type. Given the review a surprise to see him entered
over 5f in March but his trainer's approach needs to be borne in mind.
He's also the youngest entry with a May 5th birthdate.
Bathwick Princess (3,000gns) rated 53 (16), tiny and below average
build. Few positives to find overall and a likely poor 2yo runner.
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