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April 5th SUMMING UP
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A good edition of the race and with a an above average group of entries
and the majority of the field are likely to be winners at some level by
the season close. A difficult race to weigh up with the better newcomer
prospects racing for trainers who tend not to get FTO winners except with
their higher class 2yos. Of those that have run both Wrecking Crew
& Auctioneerscouk showed more promise than their finishing positions
suggest. Both attended the pace on debut before getting tired in the straight
at Lingfield and with the benefit of fitness and experience should improve.
However, both are starting from a low base and others in the field ought
to be better if they are ready enough within their ability.
Goose Green ran just an 'Ok' debut in a moderate race at Folkestone
and looked short of pace against nippier types. He is his trainer's first
STO runner and they tend to show solid improvement to their second runs.
He sets a reasonable standard and may be better suited to the stiffer finish
at this course. However, a value price for him woul probably be around
11/4 or longer because his overall profile is not strong. For example,
by season's end he almost certainly wont be the highest rated of this field
but has an experience advantage now.
The newcomers include a range of runners who should be assesed for their
future potential. The two with the best prospects of profile of competing
with Goose Green are Hellvellyn & Dimboola. Hellvellyn
was top rated at the sales amongst the group but not by an amount to suggest
100,000gns was a bargain. His trainer gets debut wins with his higher class
2yos and he ought to compete better than the trainer's average FTO.
Dimboola has an unprepossessing pedigree on the dam's side which
does not promise any quality. The sire can get speedy, precocious runners
and has already had a winner in 2006. The market is likely to be reasonably
informative as to what type of 'owner bred' he is - i.e. small, weak one
out early to try to win or natural, sprint 2yo running because he ought
to be competitive. In this case the level of the SP is more informative
than whether the price contracts or lengthens a little.
The other runners on debut do not appeal as betting propositions although
Cassiara represents a trainer who runs his best (purchased) yearlings
amongst the earliest runners and has them ready to compete to a high level
FTO relative to their quality. She is one to assess fully in paddock review.
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RACE QUALITY:
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A Class F race and in theory a low quality one. However the conditions
limit entries to horses by sires with sales price Median values is below
a certain level. The point made in the profile for Monday's Lingfield Median
Auction race - where Fast Freddie was a relatively expensive 35,000gns
at the sales although his sire's Median was only 12,000gns - is even more
pertinent here.
Six of the 10 runners cost notably more than their sire's Median level
and make for a strong looking edition of the race. The stand out is Hellvelyn
who is by the first season sire Ishiguru and was very expensive for an
early season runner at 100,000gns. His sire's median was not much over
10,000 guineas.
Other sires with relatively expensive representatives are - Piccolo (Bentley
& median of 15,000gns), Mull Of Kintyre (Fool Me & 11,000gns),
Invincible Spirit (Goose Green & over 20,000gns) and Bertolini (Tom
Paris & 15,000gns).
In the last four years the race has produced a variety of field quality
but apart from 2005 there has been at least one above average 2yo in each
running. Consider this list - Willhewiz & Iron Lad in 2002, Promenade
& Mac Love in 2003 and Berkhamsted in 2004.
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TRAINERS:
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BW Hills has the owner bred Dimboola running for owner breeder G.
Reed. He tends to choose his early season runners (before end April) well
and they are usually capable of an early season win at least. His last
three runners in the Brocklesby, for example, have been Magic Trick in
2001 (22,000gns and 3rd at 10/1 and won STO on Apr 19th beating Redback),
Farewell To Arms in 2003 (2nd at 7/1 and won STO on Apr 14th) & River
Kintyre in 2005 (40,000gns, 4th at 10/1 and won STO on May 4th).
In 2005 his first three runners by the end of April either won FTO or STO
and included Coventry Stakes winner Red Clubs. In 2003 he won a similar
race at this course on April 26th for the same owner with La Cucaracha
(who became a Group 1 winner as a 4yo last season).
ES McMahon took over from his father last season and eventually
had a reasonable record by season end. His early season debuts were consistently
inexperienced though and lost ground at the start. The wins came along
in mid summer. He has his first runner with Fool Me for important owner
John Fretwell (who keeps some 2yos with the McMahon family despite having
his own yard run by EJ O'Neill out of loyalty to his friend Bryan McMahon).
It will be interesting to see how ready the McMahon 2yos this year and
compare the performance to 2005.
B Smart did not have a 2yo runner until May 12th in 2005 and that
late start, along with a solid set of 2yos, enabled his early debut runners
to compete strongly. In a more typical year he will have a few runners
in March-April although they tend to need to develop with racing and he
has only one win before April 30th in the last four years (a 33/1 success
in 2003 on debut by Ali's Oasis in a weak race at Musselburgh). He sets
a poser here by running the expensive Helvellyn for one of Sheikh Mohammed's
sons. This owner had a relatively poor set of 2yos in 2005 given the high
prices paid and these included a laughably inept 5f debut in early season
by Cover Drive (traine M Bell). The debut runners for this owner in 2005
by Mr Smart were not notably ready nor competitive.
Regular readers of the site will know that there are a number of trainers
who have plenty of scope to improve their record with 2yos. Two have runners
here with WR Muir having his first runner with Tom Paris. His debut
runners tend to be competent although short of their best and he has only
one FTO winner in the last 5 years (at 33/1 in a draw affected race).
D Shaw has a notably poor record with 2yos and 2005 a poor season
given the sales prices paid. He has Bentley running who was relatively
expensive at the sales. The debut runs have given little insight into what
ability his 2yos have in recent seasons.
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SIRES:
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First Season Sires :-
Invincible Spirit already has two winners and has two runners here
with Goose Green & Wrecking Crew who are both on their second outings.
Ishiguru has his first runner with Hellvelyn.
All of the sires who have had previous 2yo crops have at least one 5f winner
in April on their record.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Wrecking Crew rated 64 on April 18th Paddock Review (cost €17,000).
Sales Reviews:-
Hellvelyn rated 74 (155) cost 100,000gns.
Tom Paris rated 72 (144) at 22,000gns.
Goose Green rated 70 (112) at 37,000gns.
Bentley rated 68 (136) at 34,000gns.
Fool Me rated 64 (102) at 34,000gns. Small & heavy type of sire.
Unless grows well will need to be out early to compete.
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