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April 9th SUMMING UP
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A smaller field but an interesting group and one that should produce at
least 4 winners in the season. The forecast going is good to firm and so
far this season the races have been on the AW or softer going.
The two with previous runs follow that split with Carlito's Spirit
running in the first race of the season on AW. He was favourite for that
race on the strength of his trainer's 2005 record and gave an inexperienced
debut, losing ground at the start before staying on in the straight. The
two placed horses in front of him have won since including Spoof Master.
His trainer's first STO runner did not run well but this one looked a little
better physical type. He may not be a real 5f runner but sets a solid standard
after his break.
Rouen made his debut on soft ground and made a better job of keeping
close to Spoof Master than Carlito's Spirit had done. He got tired in the
last furlong but made a solid start to his career. The strength of that
form is not strong and his trainer's STO runners to date have been mixed.
It can be difficult to judge which of his 2yos will step forward on their
second runs but Rouen has the profile to set the best standard here for
the newcomers to reach.
Amongst the newcomers there are four that you could make some kind of case
for being able to compete FTO (before the final paddock review). Espartano's
trainer seems to have made a conscious decision to get his 2yos going early
and his debut runners to date have been professional. He is by a non precocious
sire but his dam has produced early 5f 2yo runners with her first three
foals and he looked another out of the same mould at the sales. At Lingfield
two days ago we saw a debut runner for the trainer (Hart Of Gold) supported
and lead for much of the race. He was eventually picked off by Stir Crazy
running STO for Mr Channon (who runs Rouen) and Espartano would probably
have to be a little readier than Hart Of Gold if Rouen runs to expectations.
It cannot be said too many times but other than in a few, very specific,
instances backing R Hannon 2yos FTO is the wrong move. One of the specific
instances is in very early season when his best natural 2yo(s) can win
weaker races FTO. He runs Chip Leader here and he has the profile
to be a sprint winner but not obviously higher class and this looks a solid
race (as opposed to a weaker one).
Oi Vay Joe has an interesting profile and other than a stout and
slowish dam side and his trainer's average overall record has a number
of positives. The early debut raises the chances he is a natural 2yo and,
if so, his size may help him to compete well early.
Trainer WGM Turner runs Lord Blue Boy for the owner-breeder he has
already had a 25/1 debut winner for in 2006 (and a 14/1 debut winner for
with Lord Blue Boy's half brother Lord Jack Flash in 2005) so who knows?
One to check out before the race.
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RACE QUALITY:
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Windsor regularly figures in the top three courses by number of 2yos that
make their debuts at the course. It's location and popularity means that
it is used by a range of important 2yo trainers and the maidens at the
course tend to produce large and varied fields. The big fields and the
turning nature of the course contribute to debut runners having a well
below average strike rate and experience (and a good draw) an advantage.
The varied fields often include useful 2yos and the equivalent of this
maiden in 2005 provides a good example. The race was run a week later in
2005 and was the 38th race of the year rather than the 15th. The field
of 16 last year included 6 winners during the season along with a range
of disappointing and plain limited types.
Those 6 winners included useful types Green Park, Green Pride, Crocodile
Bay & Scarlet Knight who all proved to be below Listed class when tried
in better class races after their early season wins. The field also had
the placer Coburn in who showed equivalent form to those winners in the
year.
This range of ability in a Class 5 maiden at the course is pretty typical
and this race in particular has produced a range of useful winners in the
last three seasons. The highlight has been Group 2 winner Chateau Istana
who was unplaced on debut.
The entries for this race promised another bigger field but in common with
the slow start to the season has reduced to just 8 runners. However, there
are enough of the 'right' trainers represented to suggest a solid race
and set of future winners.
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TRAINERS:
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R Hannon is a strong supporter
of the Windsor maidens and regularly has a runner in this race and had
a placer in each of the last three runnings. In 2003 the small Top Spec
was supported in both his early races, including this one and finished
third. He did not win until stepped up to 8f in later season. In 2004 he
ran the ready 2yo Chalison who was supported to second favourite and was
the runner-up. He did not improve and did not win at 2yo.
Last year he ran two with Green Pride supported but finishing unplaced
having gone far side in mid race. The better 2yo Green Park was unsupported
and finished second at 12/1 with a normal stands' rail trip.
He entered four for the race and runs Chip Leader instead of any of Crystal
Gazer, Resignation or Spiderback.
M Channon has fewer runners
at Windsor than Mr Hannon and is less likely to bring a better type here.
His record at the course with 2yos in the last four seasons in 3 winners
from 55 runners (5.5% strike rate compared to his overall 13.5%). He is
0 from 23 in 2004-5.
However, he won this race in 2003 (at a time of the year with less choices
of where to run) with STO runner Seneschal and Rouen looks better than
his average runner at the course.
MJ Wallace is a former
assistant to Mr Channon and received help from that trainer to start up
on his own. He had a good initial season in 2003 with a good group of 2yos
and made good use of them. The last two seasons with more runners have
been disappointing with fewer winners and a below average strike rate.
He has made a strong start to 2006 with two Southwell wins from three runners.
His three debuts to date have finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd and have looked
notably professional. He runs Espartano whose dam has already produced
three 5f 2yo winners with all making early season debuts.
WGM Turner gets at least
one early season debut winner each season and take this list as evidence
- The Lord & Dusty Dazzler in the first week of the season in 2002,
Traytonic in March in 2003, Lady Filly (at 20/1) in March in 2004 and finally
Lord Jack Flash (at 14/1) on the 4th of April in 2005.
Three of those (The Lord, Lady Filly & Lord Jack Flash) were for owner
breeder M Teversham. He had a 25/1 debut winner this season on April 3rd
for the same owner with Lord Charles (helped by a strong pace and the leaders
fading). Is it too late in the season for him to introduce another better
type for the same owner? Lord Blue Boy's name tells you who the breeder
was and he is a half brother to last year's debut winner - Lord Jack Flash.
W Jarvis is an average
trainer and does not strongly target 2yo racing and a slightly below average
record given the quality of his 2yo runners. Debut runners are often very
fit and run close to, or at, their best rating for the season FTO. The
better runners can compete well on debut, especially in the first half
of the season.
The runners which make the earliest debuts (usually by mid-July) will include
the majority of runners which will be able to compete, and possibly win
at 2yo. In 2005 his first two runners were Killarney Beauty & Bling
who were the only 2yo winners for the season. The earliest debuts have
a mixed record and occasionally win or place at longer prices.
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SIRES:
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First Season Sires :-
Kyllachy has his first
runner with Chip Leader. He had more than 70 yearlings sold in 2005 for
an average well over 30,000gns. With the quality of support he got at stud
to add to the sheer numbers he is an obvious candidate to compete strongly
for top first season sire. However, it is worth noting that he showed his
best form as a 4yo and was a good nursery class runner at 2yo in later
season.
Noverre is represented
by his only runner to date - Rouen.
Redback has Carlito's Spirit
in the race who was his first runner. He has had one winner from three
runners (on softer ground) and another filly who probably threw away a
poor selling race by veering right.
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PADDOCK & SALES REVIEWS:
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Carlito's Spirit was paddock reviewed at Lingfield and rated 70.
Just a neat type, slightly smaller than average with above average build.
A better than average mover in the walk. He ought to be able to improve
to win an early maiden rating around 70 but may not be better than that.
Oi Vay Joe rated 72 (144) at the sales, average size and heavily
built. Slightly lengthy and short but a solid mover.
Chip Leader rated 69 (138), below average size and just above average
build. Compact, deep and a neat ready type looking like a smaller 'Pivotal'.
Espartano rated 67 (112), below average size and build but neatly
made and an early 2yo type (in line with his dam's record).
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