1. How many First Time Out (FTO) race winners were there in each season?
2. How does time of season affect FTO race win percentages?
3. How does race distance affect FTO race win Percentages?
4. What is the overall distribution of wins to run number?
5. What is the percentage of wins to runs for each run number?
6. What is the distribution of Race Wins to run number for Maiden Races?
7. What is the distribution of Race Wins to run number for Nursery Races?
8. What finishing position had STO/3TO first time winners achieved in their previous run?
9. What percentage of winners achieve a 70+ performance rating?
10. What standard of performance is needed to win the average maiden at each course?

The main points to take from the table are :-

• 15-20% of 2yo races during the turf season are won by runners making their debuts.
• Around 6% of runners won on their debuts.

On average during the whole season 15-20% of races are won by runners making their debut. The following table and graph shows how the percentage of races won by first time out runners varies with month during the 2yo season.
 

Season	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
2002	5  (71%)	13  (35%)	23  (28%)	19  (15%)	29  (16%)	25  (14%)	19  (12%)	13   (9%)	1  (9%)
2003	9  (75%)	17  (35%)	29  (28%)	25  (15%)	26  (16%)	22  (14%)	21  (12%)	19  (12%)	1  (3%)
2004	10  (100%)	17  (38%)	34  (37%)	36  (28%)	35  (19%)	14    (8%)	16    (8%)	20  (14%)	2  (12%)
2005	7  (78%)	14  (29%)	29  (33%)	30  (24%)	27  (15%)	26  (14%)	23  (12%)	15  (10%)	2  (12%)
2006	5  (71%)	20  (51%)	25  (31%)	27  (22%)	29  (17%)	22  (11%)	28  (15%)	23  (16%)	1  (6%)
2007	2  (100%)	24  (69%)	33  (38%)	34  (29%)	27  (19%)	32  (16%)	18    (9%)	33  (16%)	2  (4%)
2008	3  (60%)	25  (63%)	39  (40%)	25  (21%)	33  (19%)	21  (11%)	19 (10%)	25 (13%)	5 (16%)
2009	4  (100%)	15  (41%)	29  (27%)	29  (23%)	31 (17%)	29  (14%)	28 (13%)	26 (13%)	3 (14%)

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On average during the whole season 15-18% of races are won by runners making their debut. The following table and graph shows how the percentage of races won by first time out runners varies with race distance for the 2yo season.
 

Season	5f - 5.5f	5.6f - 6.5f	6.6f - 7.5f	7.6f - 8.5f	> 8.6f
2002	15.7%	18.2%	15.4%	8.9%	0%
2003	18.5%	16.9%	17.1%	13.6%	12.5%
2004	24.6%	19.2%	16.9%	7.3%	0%
2005	16.7%	21.2%	14.5%	16.1%	0%
2006	21.9%	18.2%	19.3%	12.9%	5.6%
2007	25.9%	19.3%	19.6%	12.8%	0%
2008	26.7%	15.2%	15.8%	17.9%	5.9%
2009	19.0%	17.7%	18.4%	17.5%	4.0%

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The table below shows the number of races in the season that were won by 2yos on a particular outing. In 2007 there were 1,030 races and 206 were won by runners on their debut (FTO) for example.
 

Season	FTO	STO	3TO	4TO	5TO	6TO	7TO	8TO	9TO	10TO	11TO	12TO+
2002	147 (16%)	273 (29%)	192 (20%)	115 (12%)	76    (8%)	64   (7%)	28    (3%)	21    (2%)	8      (1%)	7	5	6
2003	169 (17%)	269 (27%)	213 (21%)	125 (13%)	90    (9%)	44   (4%)	22    (2%)	23    (2%)	13    (1%)	14	4	10
2004	184 (18%)	272 (27%)	190 (19%)	140 (14%)	74    (7%)	52   (5%)	34    (3%)	20    (2%)	19    (2%)	7	3	3
2005	173 (17%)	270 (27%)	193 (19%)	137 (14%)	83   (8%)	64   (6%)	37   (4%)	20    (2%)	7     (1%)	9	4	3
2006	180 (19%)	267 (28%)	175 (18%)	130 (14%)	73   (8%)	52   (5%)	44   (5%)	19    (2%)	4	6	6	5
2007	206 (20%)	274 (27%)	188 (18%)	133 (13%)	99 (10%)	49   (5%)	42   (4%)	16    (2%)	12	4	3	3
2008	195 (18%)	303 (29%)	205 (19%)	125 (12%)	97  (9%)	56   (5%)	33   (3%)	12   (1%)	11	7	4	3
2009	194 (18%)	315 (28%)	213 (20%)	140 (13%)	95  (9%)	49   (5%)	35  (3%)	21  (2%)	9	6	4	7

Note two main points from the table and the graph:-

• The high percentage of races won by F-3TO runners. Around 65% of all races fall to F-3TO winners. Note that there are around 130 Nursery races each season so that the same group win around 75% of non-handicap races. More than 50% of non-handicaps are won by runners on either their first or second run.
• Note how consistent the pattern is across the five seasons. This suggests that it is worth investigating further the reasons for the STO 'peak' and the high percentage of 'early run' winners.

The previous section dealt with the number of races that were won by runners on a particular outing in their 2yo career. This section covers the number of wins by run number across all outings by 2yos in the season.
 

		2003 Season				2004 Season				2005 Season
	Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %
FTO	2,647	169	6.4%	FTO	2,912	184	6.3%	FTO	2,904	173	6.0%
STO	2,167	269	12.4%	STO	2,362	272	11.5%	STO	2,356	270	11.5%
3TO	1,640	213	13%	3TO	1,821	190	10.4%	3TO	1,834	193	10.5%
4TO	1,083	126	11.6%	4TO	1,258	140	11.1%	4TO	1,199	137	11.4%
5TO	766	90	11.7%	5TO	809	74	9.1%	5TO	801	83	10.4%
6TO	504	44	8.7%	6TO	548	52	9.5%	6TO	562	64	11.4%
7TO	352	22	6.3%	7TO	347	34	9.8%	7TO	359	37	10.3%
8TO	233	23	9.9%	8TO	217	20	9.2%	8TO	218	20	9.2%
9TO	153	13	8.5%	9TO	128	19	14.8%	9TO	148	7	4.7%
10TO	104	14	13.5%	10TO	80	7	8.8%	10TO	95	9	9.5%
11TO	73	4	5.5%	11TO	42	3	7.1%	11TO	62	4	6.4%
12TO	47	6	12.8%	12TO	22	1	4.5%	12TO	30	2	6.7%
13TO	25	3	12%	13TO	14	1	7.1%	13TO	15	0	0%
14TO	18	1	5.6%	14TO	3	0	0%	14TO	9	1	11.1%
	9,812 runs		Ave = 10%		10,567 runs		Ave = 9.4%		10,601 runs		Ave = 9.4%

 

		2006 Season				2007 Season
	Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %
FTO	2,696	180	6.7%	FTO	3,014	206	6.8%
STO	2,166	267	12.3%	STO	2,464	274	11.1%
3TO	1,617	175	10.8%	3TO	1,916	189	9.9%
4TO	1,032	130	12.6%	4TO	1,235	134	10.9%
5TO	689	73	10.6%	5TO	880	99	11.3%
6TO	473	52	11.0%	6TO	573	50	8.7%
7TO	323	44	13.6%	7TO	353	42	11.9%
8TO	195	19	9.7%	8TO	215	16	7.4%
9TO	116	4	3.4%	9TO	125	13	10.4%
10TO	65	6	9.2%	10TO	64	4	6.3%
11TO	39	6	15.4%	11TO	33	3	9.1%
12TO	25	3	12.0%	12TO	23	2	8.7%
13TO	15	1	6.7%	13TO	13	1	7.7%
14TO	8	0	0%	14TO	5	0	0%
	9,466		Ave = 10.1%		10,913		Ave =  9.5%

 

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The table shows  the breakdown of maiden races by the run number that the winners were on. Note that around two thirds of Maiden races are won by runners that are on their first or second starts.

    Maiden races which are won by runners after a high number of previous starts are usually at lesser courses and require moderate winning performances. The three wins by runners on their tenth, or later, start in 2005 were at Catterick, Nottingham & Wolverhampton and rated only 63, 61 & 55. In 2006 the two wins were at Catterick & Bath rating 56 and 62. The three 8TO wins in 2007 were at Brighton, Wolverhampton & Yarmouth with two at higher end seller race quality ratings.

    In 2008 four of the 5 maiden wins at 7TO or higher were at Brighton, Catterick, Redcar & Warwick by horses who had a BHA rating of 64 or 72. The one exception was Richard Hannon's Heliodor who was rated OR78 and won at Goodwood. He made an early May debut over 5f and ran in a number of races that suggested the trainer thought he was useful. The impression in mid-season was that he had OR80+ ability but was idle and would not show it on the racecourse. He eventually won when stepped up to 9f in late season and won a Conditions race over 10f afterwards.

    In 2009 the six 7-8TO wins were made up of two at Bath plus one each at Catterick, Hamilton, Thirsk & Wolverhampton. 5 of the 6 were in the OR58-72 BHA rating range and classic 'Eternal Placer' quality runners in that sense. 4 of the 6 were notable as pace forcing 'short runners' who struggled to last out 5f in earlier races and found easy events to win when they had learnt to settle down a little in the initial stages of races.

    The one exception was Rakaan who had placed in the Coventry Stakes but then struggled to win in maiden races afterwards. He was trained by Bryan Meehan who regularly has this type of horse and watching them try to manage tidying up maiden wins from August onwards a traditional part of the season. Rakaan is an interesting horse overall and matching his physical make-up to his Run Style and then adding in the Meehan factor is very instructive in why he took 8 attempts to win.

    The table below compares the percentages of 2yo races won in 2007 on each Run Number for All Races (red bars) and for the 516 Maiden Races only (green). The relative bias towards maiden races being won by 2yos on one of their first three outings can be seen. For all starts after 3TO the 2yos in the Maiden Races achieved a lower percentage of race wins than was achieved across all 2yo races.

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    In 2007 there were 14 debut winners who ran in Nurseries on their second outings with 2 winning (14.3%) at SPs of 11/2 and 3/1 (dead heat) and a solid loss to level stakes. The 9 winners on 3TO were from a group of 86 representatives with the longest SP of a winner 11/2 and with five of them at less than 5/2 and a strong loss to level staking on all qualifiers.

    Trainer Mick Channon has been responsible for 6 of the 19 Nursery winners on their tenth or later runs in the three seasons 2005-7, typically with a runner that won in early season. These have either been runners that improved in later season (e.g. Wovoka & Grantley Adams) or moderate types that have run often enough for their handicap mark to get back down to a competitive level for the individual. The two winners in 2004 had both run in the first 2yo race of that season at Lingfield on the polytrack on March 20th.

    In 2008 the 7 winners at 9TO or higher were split as two for PD (David) Evans (with Kingswinford on his 12th & 14th runs), two for Bryan Meehan and one each for Mick Channon, Jonathan Jay & Mark Johnston.

    In 2009 Mr Channon had four different horses that won in Nurseries on 9TO or later. Three other trainers had two successes but all were double wins by the same horse with PD Evans with Transfixed (13th & 20th runs and the busiest 2yo with 24 runs by turf season end and carried on running through the Winter on the AW), PS Mcentee (Angie's Nap, whom he had claimed during the season) & N Tinkler (Bossy Kitty on her 12-13th outings).

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8. What finishing position had STO/3TO first time winners achieved in their previous run?

The table covers all horses who had their first win on either their second or third run, i.e. previous winners who won again on their second and/or third run are not included.
 

Season	S-3TO FT winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	365	97   (27%)	75  (21%)	70  (19%)	33   (9%)	30  (8%)	60  (16%)
2003	375	96   (26%)	85  (23%)	48  (13%)	37  (10%)	31   (8%)	78  (21%)
2004	375	101  (27%)	63  (17%)	60  (16%)	43  (12%)	36  (10%)	72  (19%)
2005	396	100  (25%)	72  (18%)	60  (15%)	44  (11%)	38  (10%)	82  (21%)
2006	363	99  (27%)	59  (16%)	60  (17%)	37  (10%)	23  (6%)	85  (23%)
2007	393	94  (24%)	64  (16%)	68  (17%)	41  (11%)	42 (11%)	84  (21%)

The following table splits the totals for finishing position on previous run for first time winners on second outings (STO) and third time out.
 

Second TO Winners	Total First  time winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	234	59  (25%)	45  (19%)	42  (18%)	24  (10%)	23  (10%)	41  (18%)
2003	232	50  (22%)	51  (22%)	30  (13%)	26  (11%)	19   (8%)	56  (24%)
2004	234	64  (27%)	39  (17%)	32  (14%)	31  (13%)	23  (10%)	45  (19%)
2005	247	56  (23%)	41  (17%)	38  (15%)	31  (13%)	27  (11%)	54  (22%)
2006	236	56  (24%)	35  (15%)	38  (16%)	22   (9%)	18  (8%)	67  (28%)
2007	241	56 (23%)	35  (15%)	41  (17%)	23   (9%)	31 (13%)	55  (23%)
Third TO Winners	Total First Time winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	131	38  (29%)	30  (23%)	28  (21%)	9  (7%)	7  (5%)	19  (15%)
2003	143	46  (32%)	34  (24%)	18  (13%)	11 (8%)	12  (8%)	22  (15%)
2004	141	37  (26%)	24  (17%)	28  (20%)	12  (9%)	13  (9%)	27  (19%)
2005	149	44  (30%)	31  (21%)	22  (15%)	13  (9%)	11  (7%)	28  (19%)
2006	127	43  (34%)	24  (19%)	22  (17%)	15  (12%)	5  (4%)	18  (14%)
2007	152	38  (25%)	29  (19%)	27  (18%)	18  (12%)	11  (7%)	29  (19%)

Note from the table that, as would be expected, first time 3TO winners are more likely to have made the first four on their last outing that first time STO winners. Typically just over 50% of first time 3TO winners will have placed second or third on their previous outing.

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[Feb 2008 update:- This section has not been updated for 2007 data. The B2yoR estimates assigned during 2007 have been reviewed and amended as part of ongoing improvements to the ratings methods. The "70+" level in 2007 is not immediately comparable to the 2005-6 seasons at present. An Article covering the changes to the B2yoR estimates will be published by the start of the 2008 turf season. ]
 

The tables below cover the 2005-6 seasons and use the B2yoR ratings which are assigned during the season.
 

Season	Total Races	Number of Winners rated 80+	Number of Winners rated 70+	Number of Winners rated 60+	Number of Winners rated 50+
2005	998	129  (12.9%)	457  (45.8%)	806  (80.1%)	936  (93.8%)
2006	960	67  (7.0%)	260  (27.1%)	604  (62.9%)	874  (91.0%)

 

2005 Season Race Type	Total Races	Number of Winners rated 80+	Number of Winners rated 70+	Number of Winners rated 60+
Group/Listed	62	57  (92%)	62  (100%)	-
Conditions	44	16  (36.4%)	39  (88.6%)	44  (100%)
Novice	64	12  (18.8%)	45  (70.3%)	62  (97%)
Maidens	478	32  (6.7%)	219  (45.8%)	436  (91.2%)
Auctions	137	1  (0.7%)	25  (18.2%)	86  (62.8%)
Claimer/Seller	80	0	1  (1.3%)	7  (8.8%)

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[Feb 2008 update:- This section has not been updated for 2007 data. The B2yoR estimates assigned during 2007 have been reviewed and amended as part of ongoing improvements to the ratings methods. The ratings level in 2007 is not immediately comparable to the 2005-6 seasons at present. An Article covering the changes to the B2yoR estimates will be published by the start of the 2008 turf season. ]
 

The tables below cover the 2005-6 seasons and use the B2yoR ratings which are assigned during the season.
 

Season	Maiden Races	Average Rating for Winner
2005	478	68.5
2006	458	63.1

2005 Season	Number of	Average Rating		Course Ranked	Average Rating
Course	Maiden Races	for Winner		by Average Rating	for Winner 2005	2006 Average
AYR	11	67.5		NEWMARKET JULY	73.5	65.3
BATH	18	67.7		YORK	73.4	71.8
BRIGHTON	11	65.5		DONCASTER	73.3	N/A
BEVERLEY	9	67.4		GOODWOOD	71.9	68.1
CARLISLE	8	66.4		NEWBURY	71.6	67.9
CATTERICK	9	64.0		WINDSOR	71.2	63.1
CHEPSTOW	7	67.6		CHESTER	70.8	69.6
CHESTER	5	70.8		EPSOM	70.8	66.3
DONCASTER	11	73.3		RIPON	70.8	62.9
EDINBURGH	10	61.8		LINGFIELD	70.4	64.0
EPSOM	9	70.8		NEWMARKET ROWLEY	70.4	66.6
FOLKESTONE	13	68.2		HAYDOCK	70.3	61.3
GOODWOOD	14	71.9		SALISBURY	70.2	66.3
HAMILTON	11	69.4		PONTEFRACT	70.1	59.5
HAYDOCK	16	70.3		KEMPTON	69.7	62.6
KEMPTON	3	69.7		SANDOWN	69.6	64.4
LEICESTER	21	67.5		HAMILTON	69.4	61.7
LINGFIELD	8	70.4		FOLKESTONE	68.2	61.6
LINGFIELD (AW)	26	67.0		BATH	67.7	61.7
NEWCASTLE	13	67.5		THIRSK	67.7	60.5
NEWMARKET JULY	24	73.5		CHEPSTOW	67.6	63.0
NEWMARKET ROWLEY	21	70.4		AYR	67.5	59.2
NOTTINGHAM	27	65.4		LEICESTER	67.5	65.1
NEWBURY	25	71.6		NEWCASTLE	67.5	60.6
PONTEFRACT	11	70.1		BEVERLEY	67.4	67.6
REDCAR	14	66.7		LINGFIELD (AW)	67.0	62.2
RIPON	8	70.8		REDCAR	66.7	63.1
SALISBURY	13	70.2		CARLISLE	66.4	59.8
SANDOWN	12	69.6		YARMOUTH	66.4	60.9
SOUTHWELL (AW)	7	59.4		BRIGHTON	65.5	59.5
THIRSK	12	67.7		NOTTINGHAM	65.4	62.5
WARWICK	10	63.8		WOLVERHAMPTON	64.7	61.3
WINDSOR	22	71.2		CATTERICK	64.0	60.9
WOLVERHAMPTON	14	64.7		WARWICK	63.8	59.2
YARMOUTH	16	66.4		EDINBURGH	61.8	55.0
YORK	9	73.4		SOUTHWELL	59.4	57.3
				ASCOT	N/A	69.7

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