1. How many First Time Out (FTO) race winners were there in each season?
2. How does time of season affect FTO Race win percentages & overall FTO Strike Rate?
3. How does race distance affect FTO race win Percentages & overall FTO Strike Rates?
4. What is the overall distribution of wins to run number?
5. What is the percentage of wins to runs for each run number?
6. What is the distribution of Race Wins to run number for Maiden Races?
7. What is the distribution of Race Wins to run number for Nursery Races?
8. What finishing position had STO/3TO first time winners achieved in their previous run?

The main points to take from the table are :-

• 15-20% of 2yo races during the turf season are won by runners making their debuts.
• Around 6% of runners won on their debuts.
• Splitting the 2010 figures down by month show abnormally high numbers of debut wins in April-May. A £10,000 (per race win) bonus scheme was introduced in 2010 split across a range of Maiden races. This seemed to affect the approach of a number of trainers who aimed for debut wins in these races in earlier season. The best example was Richard Hannon who had 25 debut wins in the year when his previous highest had been 13 and the 8-12 range typical. He had 10 wins in April when 3-4 is the usual level. The stable had a remarkably good season overall but the early season wins seemed to represent a real change in the debut readiness of the horses. Richard Fahey also had a very good record in 2010 with 17 debut successes when 8 was his previous highest level and 3-6 the normal level.

On average during the whole season 17-20% of races are won by runners making their debut. The following table and graph shows how the percentage of Races won by first time out runners varies with month during the 2yo season.
 

Season	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
2002	5  (71%)	13  (35%)	23  (28%)	19  (15%)	29  (16%)	25  (14%)	19  (12%)	13   (9%)	1  (9%)
2003	9  (75%)	17  (35%)	29  (28%)	25  (15%)	26  (16%)	22  (14%)	21  (12%)	19  (12%)	1  (3%)
2004	10  (100%)	17  (38%)	34  (37%)	36  (28%)	35  (19%)	14    (8%)	16    (8%)	20  (14%)	2  (12%)
2005	7  (78%)	14  (29%)	29  (33%)	30  (24%)	27  (15%)	26  (14%)	23  (12%)	15  (10%)	2  (12%)
2006	5  (71%)	20  (51%)	25  (31%)	27  (22%)	29  (17%)	22  (11%)	28  (15%)	23  (16%)	1  (6%)
2007	2  (100%)	24  (69%)	33  (38%)	34  (29%)	27  (19%)	32  (16%)	18    (9%)	33  (16%)	2  (4%)
2008	3  (60%)	25  (63%)	39  (40%)	25  (21%)	33  (19%)	21  (11%)	19 (10%)	25 (13%)	5 (16%)
2009	4  (100%)	15  (41%)	29  (27%)	29  (23%)	31  (17%)	29  (14%)	28 (13%)	26 (13%)	3 (14%)
2010	5  (100%)	21  (58%)	36  (35%)	28  (23%)	43  (24%)	29  (15%)	29 (13%)	21 (11%)	3  (13%)

The following table lists the overall FTO Strike Rate split by month. This is the number of wins as a percentage of Runs and not of races.
 

Season	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
2009	8.7%	6.7%	6.9%	6.8%	6.6%	6.4%	6.6%	6.3%	6.1%
2010	9.3%	10.0%	8.1%	6.5%	9.4%	7.1%	6.3%	5.8%	6.4%

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On average during the whole season 15-18% of Races are won by runners making their debut. The following table and graph shows how the percentage of races won by first time out runners varies with race distance for the 2yo season.
 

Season	5f - 5.5f	5.6f - 6.5f	6.6f - 7.5f	7.6f - 8.5f	> 8.6f
2002	15.7%	18.2%	15.4%	8.9%	0%
2003	18.5%	16.9%	17.1%	13.6%	12.5%
2004	24.6%	19.2%	16.9%	7.3%	0%
2005	16.7%	21.2%	14.5%	16.1%	0%
2006	21.9%	18.2%	19.3%	12.9%	5.6%
2007	25.9%	19.3%	19.6%	12.8%	0%
2008	26.7%	15.2%	15.8%	17.9%	5.9%
2009	19.0%	17.7%	18.4%	17.5%	4.0%
2010	22.0%	19.6%	22.0%	12.5%	14.3%

The following table lists the overall FTO Strike Rate split by Distance. This is the number of wins as a percentage of Runs and not of races.
 

Note : (a) Only 25 debuts made at 8.6f+ in 2009 & 22 in 2010.

Season	5f - 5.5f	5.6f - 6.5f	6.6f -7.5f	7.6f - 8.5f	> 8.6f
2009	7.3%	6.3%	6.5%	6.7%	4.0%
2010	8.3%	7.2%	7.8%	5.4%	13.6%

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The table below shows the number of Races in the season that were won by 2yos on a particular outing. In 2007 there were 1,030 races and 206 were won by runners on their debut (FTO) for example.
 

Season	FTO	STO	3TO	4TO	5TO	6TO	7TO	8TO	9TO	10TO	11TO	12TO+
2002	147 (16%)	273 (29%)	192 (20%)	115 (12%)	76    (8%)	64   (7%)	28    (3%)	21    (2%)	8      (1%)	7	5	6
2003	169 (17%)	269 (27%)	213 (21%)	125 (13%)	90    (9%)	44   (4%)	22    (2%)	23    (2%)	13    (1%)	14	4	10
2004	184 (18%)	272 (27%)	190 (19%)	140 (14%)	74    (7%)	52   (5%)	34    (3%)	20    (2%)	19    (2%)	7	3	3
2005	173 (17%)	270 (27%)	193 (19%)	137 (14%)	83   (8%)	64   (6%)	37   (4%)	20    (2%)	7     (1%)	9	4	3
2006	180 (19%)	267 (28%)	175 (18%)	130 (14%)	73   (8%)	52   (5%)	44   (5%)	19    (2%)	4	6	6	5
2007	206 (20%)	274 (27%)	188 (18%)	133 (13%)	99 (10%)	49   (5%)	42   (4%)	16    (2%)	12	4	3	3
2008	195 (18%)	303 (29%)	205 (19%)	125 (12%)	97  (9%)	56   (5%)	33   (3%)	12   (1%)	11	7	4	3
2009	194 (18%)	315 (28%)	213 (20%)	140 (13%)	95  (9%)	49   (5%)	35  (3%)	21  (2%)	9	6	4	7
2010	215 (20%)	276 (25%)	213 (20%)	144 (13%)	80  (7%)	54  (5%)	46  (4%)	21  (2%)	15	7	4	11

Note two main points from the table and the graph:-

• The high percentage of races won by F-3TO runners. Around 65% of all races fall to F-3TO winners. Note that there are around 130 Nursery races each season so that the same group win around 75% of non-handicap races. More than 50% of non-handicaps are won by runners on either their first or second run.
• Note how consistent the pattern is across the five seasons. This suggests that it is worth investigating further the reasons for the STO 'peak' and the high percentage of 'early run' winners.

The previous section dealt with the number of races that were won by runners on a particular outing in their 2yo career. This section covers the number of wins by run number across all outings by 2yos in the season.
 

		2003 Season				2004 Season				2005 Season
	Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %
FTO	2,647	169	6.4%	FTO	2,912	184	6.3%	FTO	2,904	173	6.0%
STO	2,167	269	12.4%	STO	2,362	272	11.5%	STO	2,356	270	11.5%
3TO	1,640	213	13%	3TO	1,821	190	10.4%	3TO	1,834	193	10.5%
4TO	1,083	126	11.6%	4TO	1,258	140	11.1%	4TO	1,199	137	11.4%
5TO	766	90	11.7%	5TO	809	74	9.1%	5TO	801	83	10.4%
6TO	504	44	8.7%	6TO	548	52	9.5%	6TO	562	64	11.4%
7TO	352	22	6.3%	7TO	347	34	9.8%	7TO	359	37	10.3%
8TO	233	23	9.9%	8TO	217	20	9.2%	8TO	218	20	9.2%
9TO	153	13	8.5%	9TO	128	19	14.8%	9TO	148	7	4.7%
10TO	104	14	13.5%	10TO	80	7	8.8%	10TO	95	9	9.5%
11TO	73	4	5.5%	11TO	42	3	7.1%	11TO	62	4	6.4%
12TO	47	6	12.8%	12TO	22	1	4.5%	12TO	30	2	6.7%
13TO	25	3	12%	13TO	14	1	7.1%	13TO	15	0	0%
14TO	18	1	5.6%	14TO	3	0	0%	14TO	9	1	11.1%
	9,812 runs		Ave = 10%		10,567 runs		Ave = 9.4%		10,601 runs		Ave = 9.4%

 

		2006  Season				2007  Season				2008 Season
	Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %
FTO	2,696	180	6.7%	FTO	3,014	206	6.8%	FTO	3,057	195	6.4%
STO	2,166	267	12.3%	STO	2,464	274	11.1%	STO	2,493	303	12.2%
3TO	1,617	175	10.8%	3TO	1,916	189	9.9%	3TO	1,905	205	10.8%
4TO	1,032	130	12.6%	4TO	1,235	134	10.9%	4TO	1,170	125	10.7%
5TO	689	73	10.6%	5TO	880	99	11.3%	5TO	781	97	12.4%
6TO	473	52	11.0%	6TO	573	50	8.7%	6TO	492	56	11.4%
7TO	323	44	13.6%	7TO	353	42	11.9%	7TO	311	33	10.6%
8TO	195	19	9.7%	8TO	215	16	7.4%	8TO	168	12	7.1%
9TO	116	4	3.4%	9TO	125	13	10.4%	9TO	87	11	12.6%
10TO	65	6	9.2%	10TO	64	4	6.3%	10TO	44	7	15.9%
11TO	39	6	15.4%	11TO	33	3	9.1%	11TO	30	4	13.3%
12TO	25	3	12.0%	12TO	23	2	8.7%	12TO	12	2	16.7%
13TO	15	1	6.7%	13TO	13	1	7.7%	13TO	7	0	0%
14TO	8	0	0%	14TO	5	0	0%	14TO	3	1	33.3%
	9,466		Ave = 10.1%		10,913		Ave =  9.5%		10,564		Ave =  9.9%

 

		2009 Season				2010  Season				2011 Season
	Total Runs	Total  Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total  Wins	Win %		Total Runs	Total Wins	Win %
FTO	2,926	194	6.6%	FTO	2,874	215	7.5%	FTO	-
STO	2,389	315	13.2%	STO	2,239	276	12.3%	STO	-
3TO	1,820	213	11.7%	3TO	1,814	213	11.7%	3TO	-
4TO	1,196	140	11.7%	4TO	1,182	144	12.2%	4TO	-
5TO	813	95	11.7%	5TO	816	80	9.8%	5TO	-
6TO	558	49	8.8%	6TO	548	50	9.1%	6TO	-
7TO	349	35	10.0%	7TO	344	46	13.4%	7TO	-
8TO	228	21	9.2%	8TO	206	21	10.2%	8TO	-
9TO	136	9	6.6%	9TO	132	15	11.4%	9TO	-
10TO	87	6	6.9%	10TO	89	7	7.9%	10TO	-
11TO	47	4	8.5%	11TO	45	4	8.9%	11TO	-
12TO	24	2	8.3%	12TO	33	4	12.1%	12TO	-
13TO	19	2	10.5%	13TO	23	2	8.7%	13TO	-
14TO	10	0	0%	14TO	16	3	18.8%	14TO	-
	10,621		Ave = 10.2%		10,468		Ave =  9.6%				Ave =  %

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The table shows  the breakdown of maiden races by the run number that the winners were on. Note that around two thirds of Maiden races are won by runners that are on their first or second starts.

    Maiden races which are won by runners after a high number of previous starts are usually at lesser courses and require moderate winning performances. The three wins by runners on their tenth, or later, start in 2005 were at Catterick, Nottingham & Wolverhampton and rated only 63, 61 & 55. In 2006 the two wins were at Catterick & Bath rating 56 and 62. The three 8TO wins in 2007 were at Brighton, Wolverhampton & Yarmouth with two at higher end seller race quality ratings.

    In 2008 four of the 5 maiden wins at 7TO or higher were at Brighton, Catterick, Redcar & Warwick by horses who had a BHA rating of 64 or 72. The one exception was Richard Hannon's Heliodor who was rated OR78 and won at Goodwood. He made an early May debut over 5f and ran in a number of races that suggested the trainer thought he was useful. The impression in mid-season was that he had OR80+ ability but was idle and would not show it on the racecourse. He eventually won when stepped up to 9f in late season and won a Conditions race over 10f afterwards.

    In 2009 the six 7-8TO wins were made up of two at Bath plus one each at Catterick, Hamilton, Thirsk & Wolverhampton. 5 of the 6 were in the OR58-72 BHA rating range and classic 'Eternal Placer' quality runners in that sense. 4 of the 6 were notable as pace forcing 'short runners' who struggled to last out 5f in earlier races and found easy events to win when they had learnt to settle down a little in the initial stages of races.

    The one exception was Rakaan who had placed in the Coventry Stakes but then struggled to win in maiden races afterwards. He was trained by Bryan Meehan who regularly has this type of horse and watching them try to manage tidying up maiden wins from August onwards a traditional part of the season. Rakaan is an interesting horse overall and matching his physical make-up to his Run Style and then adding in the Meehan factor is very instructive in why he took 8 attempts to win.

    The table below compares the percentages of 2yo races won in 2007 on each Run Number for All Races (red bars) and for the 516 Maiden Races only (green). The relative bias towards maiden races being won by 2yos on one of their first three outings can be seen. For all starts after 3TO the 2yos in the Maiden Races achieved a lower percentage of race wins than was achieved across all 2yo races.

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    In 2007 there were 14 debut winners who ran in Nurseries on their second outings with 2 winning (14.3%) at SPs of 11/2 and 3/1 (dead heat) and a solid loss to level stakes. The 9 winners on 3TO were from a group of 86 representatives with the longest SP of a winner 11/2 and with five of them at less than 5/2 and a strong loss to level staking on all qualifiers.

    Trainer Mick Channon has been responsible for 6 of the 19 Nursery winners on their tenth or later runs in the three seasons 2005-7, typically with a runner that won in early season. These have either been runners that improved in later season (e.g. Wovoka & Grantley Adams) or moderate types that have run often enough for their handicap mark to get back down to a competitive level for the individual. The two winners in 2004 had both run in the first 2yo race of that season at Lingfield on the polytrack on March 20th.

    In 2008 the 7 winners at 9TO or higher were split as two for PD (David) Evans (with Kingswinford on his 12th & 14th runs), two for Bryan Meehan and one each for Mick Channon, Jonathan Jay & Mark Johnston.

    In 2009 Mr Channon had four different horses that won in Nurseries on 9TO or later. Three other trainers had two successes but all were double wins by the same horse with PD Evans with Transfixed (13th & 20th runs and the busiest 2yo with 24 runs by turf season end and carried on running through the Winter on the AW), PS Mcentee (Angie's Nap, whom he had claimed during the season) & N Tinkler (Bossy Kitty on her 12-13th outings).

    In 2010 there was an increase in Nursery events with many in later season after divisions of AW races in Late September to November. The increase in nursery winners on 10TO+ partly caused by this but an unusual season in the number of horses that won more than one nursery. The increase in 3TO wins in nurseries over the season 2009-10 also seems to be because previous winners have got into handicaps on usable ratings.  No change in that Mick Channon accounted for 5 of the 15 wins for 10TO+ runners with 4 different horses including one that won 15-16TO in handicaps.

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8. What finishing position had STO/3TO first time winners achieved in their previous run?

The table covers all horses who had their first win on either their second or third run, i.e. previous winners who won again on their second and/or third run are not included.
 

Season	S-3TO FT winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	365	97   (27%)	75  (21%)	70  (19%)	33   (9%)	30  (8%)	60  (16%)
2003	375	96   (26%)	85  (23%)	48  (13%)	37  (10%)	31   (8%)	78  (21%)
2004	375	101  (27%)	63  (17%)	60  (16%)	43  (12%)	36  (10%)	72  (19%)
2005	396	100  (25%)	72  (18%)	60  (15%)	44  (11%)	38  (10%)	82  (21%)
2006	363	99  (27%)	59  (16%)	60  (17%)	37  (10%)	23  (6%)	85  (23%)
2007	393	94  (24%)	64  (16%)	68  (17%)	41  (11%)	42 (11%)	84  (21%)
2008	429	103  (24%)	71  (16%)	65  (15%)	50  (12%)	42  (10%)	98  (23%)
2009	444	117  (26%)	99  (22%)	60  (14%)	48  (11%)	33  (7%)	87  (20%)
2010	395	112  (28%)	76  (19%)	57  (14%)	41  (10%)	27  (7%)	82  (21%)

The following table splits the totals for finishing position on previous run for first time winners on second outings (STO) and third time out.
 

Second TO Winners	Total First  time winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	234	59  (25%)	45  (19%)	42  (18%)	24  (10%)	23  (10%)	41  (18%)
2003	232	50  (22%)	51  (22%)	30  (13%)	26  (11%)	19   (8%)	56  (24%)
2004	234	64  (27%)	39  (17%)	32  (14%)	31  (13%)	23  (10%)	45  (19%)
2005	247	56  (23%)	41  (17%)	38  (15%)	31  (13%)	27  (11%)	54  (22%)
2006	236	56  (24%)	35  (15%)	38  (16%)	22   (9%)	18  (8%)	67  (28%)
2007	241	56 (23%)	35  (15%)	41  (17%)	23   (9%)	31 (13%)	55  (23%)
2008	270	51  (19%)	41  (15%)	39  (14%)	38  (14%)	29  (11%)	72  (27%)
2009	279	62  (22%)	60  (22%)	39  (14%)	34  (12%)	18  (6%)	66  (24%)
2010	235	61  (26%)	40  (17%)	25  (11%)	29  (12%)	16  (7%)	64  (27%)
Third TO Winners	Total First Time winners	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth	Seventh+
2002	131	38  (29%)	30  (23%)	28  (21%)	9  (7%)	7  (5%)	19  (15%)
2003	143	46  (32%)	34  (24%)	18  (13%)	11 (8%)	12  (8%)	22  (15%)
2004	141	37  (26%)	24  (17%)	28  (20%)	12  (9%)	13  (9%)	27  (19%)
2005	149	44  (30%)	31  (21%)	22  (15%)	13  (9%)	11  (7%)	28  (19%)
2006	127	43  (34%)	24  (19%)	22  (17%)	15  (12%)	5  (4%)	18  (14%)
2007	152	38  (25%)	29  (19%)	27  (18%)	18  (12%)	11  (7%)	29  (19%)
2008	159	52  (33%)	30  (19%)	26  (16%)	12  (8%)	13  (8%)	26  (16%)
2009	165	55  (33%)	39  (24%)	21  (13%)	14  (8%)	15  (9%)	21  (13%)
2010	160	51  (32%)	36  (22%)	32  (20%)	12  (8%)	11  (7%)	18  (11%)

Note from the table that, as would be expected, first time 3TO winners are more likely to have made the first four on their last outing than first time STO winners. Typically just over 50% of first time 3TO winners will have placed second or third on their previous outing.

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