1. How many 2yo horses ran during each season?
2. What percentage of those runners won a race?
3. What percentage of winning horses win more than one race?
4. When do runners make their debuts during the season?
5. What is the breakdown of runners by the coat colour?
6. Does a horse's coat colour make any difference to their chances of winning at 2yo?
7. Do fillies win their share of races compared to the males?
8. Does a horse's month of birth make any difference to the chances of winning?
9. What percentage of males are already gelded when they make their debut runs?

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Note that around 75% of 2yo runners dont win. Therefore when looking at 2yo population in paddock review you are looking for 25% that can win at some level. If you decide to look for horses in Paddock Review capable of rating 70+ (which is the benchmark rating in the B2yoR Paddock Review System) and discount races won with performances rating below Official Rating (OR) of 70 (seller, most claimers, lower level nurseries, many auctions races) then you are looking for the top 500-600 horses in a population of more than 2600.

It is also worth considering that if 25% of runners win, then chances of buying a 2yo winner at the yearling sales are probably around 1 in 9 (11% of yearlings sold). In the 2004 season, for example, of the 2,949 runners around 1900 went through the sales ring and 'appeared' to be sold. Therefore around 500 winners were sold at auction.

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The current structure of race types and penalties makes it difficult to win more than one race and the increase in the percentage of single winners suggest this process in continuing to tighten up (possibly because of the BHA's handicapper's methods). There are a small number of reasons why horses win more than two races which are considered in an Article on the site.

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The following table gives the cumulative total of runners that had made their debuts by the end of each month in the 2005 and 2010 seasons. The discrepancy between the number of debuts and the overall total of runners is caused by foreign runners who did not make their debuts in Britain.
 

Season	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November
2005	78	316	695	1,135	1,630	2,083	2,511	2,876	2,904
2010	54	264	708	1,136	1,593	2,000	2,462	2,827	2,874

For example, in  2005 only 695 horses (24%) had made their debuts by the end of May and only around 1000 by the end of the Royal Ascot (at York) meeting.

This is worth considering in the context of a range of  issues but, in particular, the quality of early season Listed and Group races. The 2005 season saw two new Listed races added to the Pattern in May with the first on May 13th by which date just 453 horses (16% of the season total) had run.

Races which are accorded Class 1 status should have a good prospect of being tough events with some longer term significance. Running Listed races when such a small percentage of the 2yo population is active is likely to undermine the value of the term 'Listed'. The better option is to leave these races as Conditions events unless we really feel the need for a 'Precocity Championship'.

We will probably end up with another, unnecessary, Class to enable the 'Listed' level to be split into the wide range of abilities it currently covers. Consider that the toughest 3yo Listed race with experienced athletes, including those with good Group race form, is worth as much as the earliest 2yo Listed race amongst a small pool of unproven horses. The phrase 'Listed Race' is used in the Media and Sales Catalogues as if it were a single performance level so those in charge of the Pattern and race classification need to be careful with their decisions.

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Thoroughbred coat colour and its inheritance is briefly explained in an Article on this site.

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Thoroughbred coat colour and its inheritance is briefly explained in an Article on this site.

There is no theoretical basis to believe that coat colour is linked to athletic performance (the inheritance of the former is reasonably well understood, while the latter, hardly at all). However, the figures show that Bays have, consistently, won slightly more races than would be expected and Chestnuts slightly less. An interesting question posed as to what the cause(s) might be.

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Remember that the split between Male and Female runners is on average is around 55% male to 45% females. If everything else was equal then you could expect a similar split of races won. The table shows that males win more of the 2yo races than expected.

This difference is actually more pronounced than the figures in the table suggest. Consider that in 2007 there were 158 more races confined to fillies' only compared to males' only. Therefore with a 15.1% (it was 13.5% in 2005) 'head start' they still only won 38.3% of the races. They won only 237 (28.8%) of the 822 events open to both sexes.

Fillies have other advantages:-

• the 5lb sex allowance in stakes races;
• they also have an in-built advantage in Auction races where raceweights are allotted by sales price. Fillies as a group make less at yearling auctions than males. This means that some fillies of slightly better physical type and pedigree will compete in Auction races off comparable weights with slightly inferior males (taken as a population group).

• Do fillies make as many runs, on average, as males?

• What is the breakdown of Wins to Runs by Fillies in different Race Types?

The table show the Strike Rates achieved by 2yo fillies in different race types where they are competing against males. In open Maiden races fillies will normally receive 5lbs in weight-for-sex allowance from colts & geldings. Auction Races are defined as those where the weights carried are set by the sales price of the individual horse. These races also usually allow fillies 5lbs in comparison to males for equivalent sales price groupings.

Nurseries are handicaps where the weight is set by the rating the horse has been given by the BHA's official handicapper and do not include any weight-for-sex allowance.

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    During the early part of the 2yo season you will hear pundits trying to pick 2yo winners by their foaling date. The suggestion will be that a horse has a better chance of winning if it was foaled earlier in the year because it will be more physically mature. Using this approach for individual horses and races is probably not useful because specific horses develop at different period in their life. Also, to have made a debut they must have been well developed enough to complete a basic training schedule to be ready to race on course.

    However, the table above covering the wins to runs by horses foaled in particular months in the 2004-2009 seasons do suggest some advantage for those horses born in January to March period. This suggests that a weighting approach for long term 'systems' backers would have some validity.

The tables following shows the percentage of wins by horses foaled in particular months during the periods March 1st to July 31st and March 1st to May 31st in the 2004 to 2007 seasons.
 

2004 Season	Mar 20th	to Jul 31st				Mar 20th	to May 31st
Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs	Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs
Jan				Jan	75	3	4.0%
Feb				Feb	321	43	13.4%
Mar				Mar	402	45	11.2%
Apr				Apr	432	52	12.0%
May				May	56	3	5.4%
Jun				Jun	0	-	-

 

2005 Season	Mar 19th	to Jul 31st				Mar 19th	to May 31st
Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs	Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs
Jan	368	37	10.0%	Jan	117	11	9.4%
Feb	1005	115	11.4%	Feb	326	43	13.2%
Mar	1354	162	12.0%	Mar	429	46	10.7%
Apr	1282	106	8.3%	Apr	420	40	9.5%
May	342	29	8.5%	May	100	6	6.0%
Jun	1	0	0%	Jun	0	-	-

 

2006 Season	Mar 19th	to Jul 31st				Mar 19th	to May 31st
Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs	Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs
Jan	327	35	10.7%	Jan	92	15	16.3%
Feb	827	113	13.7%	Feb	236	32	13.6%
Mar	1,246	144	11.6%	Mar	395	39	9.9%
Apr	1,063	96	9.0%	Apr	316	33	10.4%
May	199	19	9.5%	May	56	3	5.4%
Jun	1	0	0%	Jun	0	-	-

 

2007 Season	Mar 29th	to Jul 31st				Mar 29th	to May 31st
Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs	Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs
Jan	363	44	12.1%	Jan	111	16	14.4%
Feb	968	109	11.3%	Feb	301	34	11.3%
Mar	1,195	133	11.1%	Mar	360	44	12.2%
Apr	1,054	83	7.9%	Apr	322	22	6.8%
May	257	19	7.4%	May	55	8	14.5%
Jun	2	0	0%	Jun	0	-	-

Figures for 2008-2009 Not Published.
 

2010 Season	Mar 27th	to Jul 31st				Mar 27th	to May 31st
Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs	Birth Month	Total Runs	Wins	Wins-Runs
Jan	260	22	8.5%	Jan	78	7	9.0%
Feb	1,116	142	12.7%	Feb	390	51	13.1%
Mar	1,339	147	11.0%	Mar	401	49	12.2%
Apr	1,129	119	10.5%	Apr	330	33	10.0%
May	217	18	8.3%	May	50	3	6.0%
Jun	0	-	-	Jun	0	-	-

The following two tables summarise the Strike Rates achieved by the different 2yo birthdate month groups for races in the two periods from season start to May 31st and July 31st. Two different periods are shown to see whether any possible 'maturity' advantage for horses with early birthdates lessens as the season progresses and the later born 2yos have a chance to 'catch up' in physical, and mental, development.
 

Note: (a) No 2yo with a June birthdate has run before May 31st in 2004-7
(b) Figures for 2008-9 not Published.

		Races From	Season Start	to May 31st
Birth Month >	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
2004	4.0	13.4	11.2	12.0	5.4	-
2005	9.4	13.2	10.7	9.5	6.0	-
2006	16.3	13.6	9.9	10.4	5.4	-
2007	14.4	11.3	12.2	6.8	14.5	-
2010	9.0	13.1	12.2	10.0	6.0

(a) Figures for 2008-9 not Published.

		Races From	Season Start	to July 31st
Birth Month >	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
2004	-	-	-	-	-	-
2005	10.0	11.4	12.0	8.3	8.5	-
2006	10.7	13.7	11.6	9.0	9.5	-
2007	12.1	11.3	11.1	7.9	7.4	-
2010	8.5	12.7	11.0	10.5	8.3	-

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In 2007 the 206 geldings included 9 that won on debut which is a Strike Rate of 4.4%. In the same season fillies managed an unusually high debut Strike Rate of 7.2% and colts 6.9%. In 2010 the Strike Rate on Debuts for Geldings was up to 5.3% but still well behind the overall figure of 7.5% for all debuts (including geldings).

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