BRITISH 2yo RACING
	B2yoR WEBSITE OVERVIEW

British 2yo Racing (B2yoR) is dedicated to following 2yo racing in England, Scotland and Wales during the Turf Season (March to November). All-weather (AW) juvenile races run on artificial surfaces during this period are also incuded in the coverage. The number of AW races has increased notably in recent seasons and in 2011 accounted for nearly 20% of all 2yo races run in the coverage period.

The site contains a wide variety of information about Horses, Trainers, Sires and Races which is specifically targeted at 2yo racing. B2yoR aims to make this information better than existing sources and, as importantly, suggest how the information should be interpreted and used.

The main goal of B2yoR is to raise the profile of 2yo racing and improve the general standard of knowledge about how juvenile racing 'works' in Britain. The primary part of this approach is to promote and extend the use of Paddock Review and 'Horse Standardisation' as tools for assessing the participants. 2yo racing necessarily involves analysing many races where the runners are making their debuts or have had a small number of previous runs. Given that much of the mainstream analysis of racing is done through studying previous form, and there's little or no form available in many cases, 2yo racing provokes a number of different responses. For example:-

• Over-reliance on racecourse 'Whispers' and 'stable information'. The information is probably of dubious value and is almost certainly of little use because it almost never takes into account the quality of the opposition. It will also rarely be quantified in any numerical terms that would relate to an absolute scale on which a horse's ability could be defined.
• 'Race Standardisation'. Assuming that certain types of races at certain courses will always attract runners of the same ability, year in and year out. This 'model' is then used to rate races, and to assess what level of performance will be needed to win a race regardless of the actual abilities of the group of 2yos assembled in the current season. The use of this method leads to many examples of 2yo races and performances being over-rated and occasionally under-rated. Correcting the vagaries of 'Race Standardisation' is probably the most important and profitable area for the use of Paddock Review and 'Horse Standardisation'.
• Over-reliance on individual, lovingly polished, sets of Statistics to try to identify a winner. The use of these types of statistics can be useful but need to be incorporated into a wider understanding of the race to be analysed. Flexibility is also needed to interpret statistics. Taking the case of trainers and sires the primary factor in assessing whether they will have a good year is the quality of their representatives. For example, trainer's strings vary in quality from year to year and they may change their methods to try to make a better impression. First season sires may have a good record with their initial runners which were produced when they were 'fashionable'. They will usually then have two less successful seasons with less runners while the market waits to assess their yearlings/runners.
• 'Learned Helplessness'. Listening to those that say that analysing 2yo races is impossible so ignore it and go back to another run through the form of the older sprint handicap where everything is running against each other for the umpteenth time. On the basis that it might be easier although the B2yoR view would be the 2yo races are simpler to work with.

The paddock review information brings in a 'Horse Standardisation' approach where current and future performance can be assessed from the physical types that ran in the race. The review information for a horse should include an overall rating which relates to the Official Rating (OR) scale and a full description of its physical type and athleticism. This subject is covered in more detail in the 'Paddock Review' section on this site.

The use of paddock review information for 2yo races needs to be used more extensively and needs to be of much greater depth. Current generally available 'Paddock Review' information is usually of moderate quality. With some honourable exceptions the paddock analysis in the media tends to show similar problems:-

• Use of unquantified, vague language. 'Nice Type', for instance, is of no use since it is an insipid personal opinion with no supporting evidence. It can also be interpreted in a wide range of ways in retrospect.
• Almost obsessional emphasis on minor factors which will probably have minor bearing on a race between a widely mixed ability group of 2yos in a maiden. At the forefront of this is the obsession with horse's coats. This is an indicator of 'well-being' and not fundamental ability and it is information about the latter that is required with unraced and lightly raced 2yos. A cynical view might be that paddock review experts spend time highlighting coats, sweating, 'coltishness', etc. because they've got to say something and do not feel competent to assess ability.
• Use of much too limited descriptions of physical types. For example "Leggy individual", "Stocky type" and "Unfurnished" are at least trying to identify the right type of information. But the information is again not quantified and the implications are not spelt out nor built into a full framework.
• Paddock analysis which is actually form analysis. Typical examples tend to progress as "He's a nice type, and his coat looks really shiny. He showed good form when he finished second to Insipid Remarks at Leicester ........".
• Paddock analysis which are actually pedigree remarks. Most often in the peculiar form of "He's an ok type, his coat's a bit dry, but he's by the sire Empty Waffle so he'll really love to hear his hooves rattle/get his toe in [Delete as applicable] today...."

• Side-on Picture of each 2yo.
• Description of Physical Type in a well known standard form, including simple measure of athleticism.
• Estimation of Fitness on a well known scale.
• Numerical Rating of each 2yo as a physical specimen relating to the best Official Rating that the 2yo is likely to be able to achieve in a truly run race. Not the inflated OR figures that occur by finishing close up in slowly run races or because of race standardisation effects. The projected OR figures produced by the mainstream handicappers, with crumpled and compacted results in slow events, lead to the majority of juveniles never having run to the performance figures they are credited with.
• Summary of the horses likely distance aptitude and development through the season.

B2yoR has produced various examples of the menu above over the years since the website started in 2005 and a number are linked to by the Anthology Article. The tools and the expertise are available but have still made very little impact on the major commercial Racing Information providers and tipsters. From the B2yoR viewpoint it is an interesting balance. On one hand it would be terrific to have the Paddock Review approach developed by a wider base of practitioners. On the other it might lessen the 'edge' it still provides in finding value bets.

The following Sections give an overview of the type of information available in the major areas of the B2yoR website. Starting with the resources made available, and updated regularly, as each individual season unfolds.

Back to Top of Page

• Day Declarations - Daily Pages with all Horses declared listed by Race. The main purpose of these pages is to provide a single point from which links to the individual Horse & Trainer webpages. In 2011 these Declaration tables also included what run the horse was on and the best previous B2yoR Estimate they had achieved. This format will be developed further in 2012. Over the seasons since 2005 the format has changed beginning with the Profile 'Green Tables' which have been taken up as a presentation format by a number of other providers. These Daily pages used to be termed 'Previews' when they included discussions of the individual races along with more general issues. That level of coverage is not currently provided but the previous season's Previews contain a large store of useful information.
• 2yo Summaries - individual pages for each horse Declared in the seasons. Provides a one line Summary for each of the horse's previous runs. These 'Run Detail' lines include the B2yoR Rating assigned to the run, the Run Notes summary and a link to the Result Page for the run. The page also gives details of the Trainer, Owner and Sales Price information along with full Pedigree information including links to information about the Dam & Siblings, where available. The page includes links to the Trainer and Sire pages. If a picture of the horse is available it will be linked to from this page. Where there are multiple photos of a horse the link will be to the best example.
• The Results section contains cut-down results pages for all of the 2yo races during the season. B2yoR numbers each 2yo race during the season from 1 upwards based on day and the Course alphabetically. The 'Results Index' page therefore build into a full listing of all 2yo Races during the season presented on a single page. A useful resource in it's own right. The Results pages are cut-down versions and do not include items such as jockeys and distances beaten. The first of those is of minimal relevance and the second is implicit in the Estimates and the 'Class Level' revealed by the ratings a more useful area to master. The Results pages have a number of extra items and information :-
  • Halfway Positions - colour coded for horses making places to the finish.
  • Run Number - for each horse to highlight how newcomers and those with previous runs have fared.
  • Previous Course/Distance Times - listings of all comparable times at the course in the last two seasons ordered by time. Enables the current race to be compared against a historical record.
  • Race Pace - assessment of the Race Pace during the first half of the event on a scale -2 to +2 with 0 denoting and Average Pace.
  • Virtual Paddock - Where Pictures are available of the majority of Horses in a Race they will be presented as a single page 'Virtual Paddock'. Check for a valid link from the 'VP' box.
  • 'Strings' - Where horses represented the same Owner the Run Notes will detail which was considered to be the First or Second String. This can extend up to the Third & Fourth strings for an owner such as Godolphin in some maidens.
  • Market Change - Notes of major moves in the Starting Price (SP) Market. These could be an SP shortening ('Support') or lengthening ('Drift').
• The Trainers Section Index Page has links to the main individual Trainers' pages for the season. There will be Pages present for each Trainer that had a runner in the previous year plus new trainers and those returning with juvenile runners after a gap. Until the 2009 Season there was a single season Page for each trainer. The Page was split into two tables with the first containing a 'Run Detail' format listing all of the trainer's runs during the season, including non-runners and those horses withdrawn, in date order. The second table listed just the Debut Runs in the same format and had links to the individual Horse Pages on each line.
  From 2010 onwards the two tables have been split into two separate pages and had further structure added. The main page still lists all runs but subdivided by month and by Distance Group within each month. The new second Page lists the debut runs for the trainer in three tables ordered by Month, Distance Group and SP Group. The Debuts Page still has links to the related Horse Pages.
  The Main Page for each Trainer may contain the following as appropriate :-
  • A brief Summary about the trainer noting items such as stable moves, changes in major owners and so forth.
  • A link to a Wins List Page for the trainer listing all of the trainer's Wins, by season, since 2005.
  • Links to the 'Trainer FTO Red-Amber-Greens' (T-FRAG Pages) for the last two seasons. These Pages list the trainer's Debut Runs for the season ordered by Date, First Time Out (FTO) B2yoR Estimate and by SP. The lines are colour coded depending upon whether the horse was a Season Winner (Green or Dark Green for FTO successes), Placer (2nd or 3rd as the best place achieved and coded as Amber), Unplaced during the season on all outings (Red). Table Cells for Horses which only ran once will be left white.
  • Links to the Trainers Career Statistics Pages along with the previous two seasons individual Pages if present.
  Note that from 2011 onward a summary table for Trainers comparing their relative performance in the current season, up to the latest race, compared to the previous year will be produced at intervals. There are links to this Trainer Status Webpage from the main Trainers Index Page for the season and from the site's Homepage.
• The Sires Section Index Page has links to the main individual Sires' pages for the season. With minor exceptions the notes for the Trainers' Pages in the previous bullet point hold true for the format and available information for the sire data. Note though that the 'FRAG' type pages are not produced for Sires. The overall 'Status Webpage' comparing the current season to date with the previous year to the same point has not been produced for Sires up to 2011.
• The Season Pictures section contains pictures of the season's 2yo runners as they become available. Note that all Horses have any pictures filed under the year that they were 2yos.

This Section contains statistical summaries for the 2yo runners only of Trainers that had at least one 2yo runner declared in at least one of the seasons from 2002 onwards. For some major trainers the information provided includes the statistics for seasons between 1996 and 2001.

There are two Summary Pages for each trainer which are termed the 'Trainer Stats Page 1' and the 'Extra Stats Page 2'. The 'Page 1' Summary is linked to from the main Index Page for the section and from the Trainer's individual Season Pages. The 'Extra Stats' Pages are linked to from Page 1 and from the individual Season main pages.

The summaries cover a range of information about trainer's methods which are not generally available. The information available on Page 1 are :-

• Stable Summary Totals - encompasses :-
• Number of Runners, Winners, Runs, Wins;
• Strike Rate, FTO Strike Rate;
• Winners to Runners percent;
• Wins per Winner and Average Runs per Runner for each season.
• Stable Summary Rankings - gives the Ranking of the trainer for the items listed in the previous bullet point, amongst all trainers, for each season.
• Wins to Runs split by Month
• Wins to Runs split by Run Number (FTO, STO, 3TO, etc).
• Wins to Runs split by Distance Group (5 Furlongs, 6f, 7f, 8f & 9f+)
• Debut Runs (FTO) Specific Data :-
• Debut Runs grouped by Finishing Position
• Debut Runs grouped by SP Group
• Debut Wins to Runs by Race Type
• Debut Wins to Runs by Race Class
• Debut Wins to Runs by Race Distance
• Days between First and Second Runs grouped by Finishing Position
• Season Winners to Non-Winners by Month of Debut

• First Time Out (FTO) Profit & Loss :-
• P&L for All Runners
• P&L by Month Group
• P&L by Distance Group
• Second Time Out (STO) Profit & Loss :-
• P&L for All Runners
• P&L by Month Group
• P&L by Distance Group
• First Time Out (FTO) Average [Estimates] :-
• All Runners by Season Winner & Non-Winner
• Winners to Non-Winners by Month Group
• Winners to Non-Winners by Debut Distance Group
• Percentage of Winners in Debut Index Slice :-
• Breakdown of Winners in first 50% of Debut Index
• Breakdown of Winners in first 20% of Debut Index
• Winners to Runners by Source :-
• Winners to Runners by Sales Price Group or Owner Bred

Back to Top of Page

This Section contains statistical summaries for the 2yo runners only of Sires that had at least one 2yo runner declared in at least one of the seasons from 2002 onwards. For some major Sires the information provided includes the statistics for seasons between 1996 and 2001.

There is one Summary Page for each Sire which is termed the 'Sire Stats Page'. The Stats Page is linked to from the main Index Page for the section and from the Sire's individual Season Pages.

The Stats summaries cover a range of information about sires which are not generally available. The information available is :-

• Sire Summary Totals - encompasses :-
• Number of Runners, Winners, Runs, Wins;
• Strike Rate, FTO Strike Rate;
• Winners to Runners percent;
• Wins per Winner and Average Runs per Runner for each season.
• Sire Summary Rankings - gives the Ranking of the Sire for the items listed in the previous bullet point, amongst all sires, for each season.
• Wins to Runs split by Month
• Wins to Runs split by Run Number (FTO, STO, 3TO, etc).
• Wins to Runs split by Distance Group (5 Furlongs, 6f, 7f, 8f & 9f+)
• Debut Runs (FTO) Specific Data :-
• Debut Runs grouped by Finishing Position
• Debut Runs grouped by SP Group
• Debut Wins to Runs by Race Type
• Debut Wins to Runs by Race Class
• Debut Wins to Runs by Race Distance
• Days between First and Second Runs grouped by Finishing Position
• Season Winners to Non-Winners by Month of Debut

Back to Top of Page

This section provides information summaries for the 2yo season for the years from 2002 on. The 2yo season covers all juvenile races in Britain during the flat turf season, including 2yo races on the all-weather during the turf season.

The information is useful for anyone interested in 2yo racing and gaining a general understanding of the 'size and shape' of the season and what factors influence it.

The data covers the following areas each with it's own Webpage :-

• 2yo Horse population;
• Races - types, classes, distances, etc. ;
• Winners - by run number, multiple winners, previous positions before a win;
• General Sires & Dams population and issues;
• Trainer Population & Methods;
• Starting Prices - distributions, percentage take-out.

The information is split by a range of interesting questions about 2yo racing which it should help to explain. This 'question' format helps to introduce some of the factors that someone should be thinking about when trying to analyse juvenile racing in general and particular 2yo races.

Examples of the questions posed :-

• How many 2yo horses run during the season?
• What percentage of those horses win a race? More than one race?
• What percentage of horses win first time out?
• Do fillies win their share of races compared to the males?
• Does horse coat colour make any difference to their chances of winning at 2yo?
• How has the number of races on All-Weather surfaces changed?
• What is is the distribution of Run Number for Nursery Race winners?
• Does the age of a 2yo's Dam make any difference to it's chances of winning?
• Which trainers use 'headgear' most often on their horses? How does it affect winning strike rate?

Paddock Review describes the activity of going to see the 2yos in the pre-parade and paddock rings and assessing their abilities and aptitudes using a simple system. The review will produce a rating of each 2yo as a physical specimen, a full description of physical type and an outline of its prospects for its 2yo career.

This section contains an overview of the the type of Paddock Reviewing B2yoR believes is appropriate for 2yo races. It covers the overall approach and what areas to look for and what to ignore. The section encourages the use of paddock review and explains why this should not be seen as a 'black art' and the preserve of 'horsey insiders'.

The section includes a number of 'Virtual Paddocks' with picture examples of actual sets of 2yos for you to try to split into known types.

Late 2011 Note - The Paddock Review Section was written in late 2004 and the B2yoR approach has developed further since that time. The 'Paddock Review' approach has not changed fundamentally but there have been a number of incremental improvements. During the intervening years B2yoR has also been involved in a large project, betting syndicate funded, to collect on-course review information using 'Classical Paddock Review' methods. Updating the section to integrate all the new knowledge would be a major undertaking and the information available would make an interesting book. Currently the decision has been taken to leave the 'Paddock Review' section on the website in it's current form. While not fully current in detail it does capture the ideals and thrust of B2yoR's belief n the use of Paddock Review with some energy.

Back to Top of Page

Contains all of the site documents related to thoroughbreds and racing, especially 2yo racing. The section includes the publishing dates for titled future documents.

What's the difference between an article and a discussion document? Articles are intended as explanatory and informational documents for a general audience. Discussion documents will include more personal opinion and can express any view so long as it is backed up by some worthwhile knowledge and thought.

Anyone can submit a article or discussion to this website for inclusion if suitable. Please send any contribution to Contact Info. Note that the author retains the copyright of any article published on the B2yoR website.

Back to Top of Page

Resource containing pictures of 2yo horses from the 2002 season onwards. The pictures are of varying quality but are not intended to be used for professional or commercial purposes. They are made available here for people interested in 2yo racing and in thoroughbred conformation and types.

Note that all pictures of horses, aside from the reference Stallion images, are filed under the season when they were 2yos whenever the picture was actually collected. The main Picture Archive Index Page contain tables which link to individual seasons. The photos within a single season are presented in separate Alphabetical Index Pages.

All picture files on the website have a standard naming format :-

Where Date is in format - YYMMDD - and Racecourse (Crse) is in an easily identifiable four letter standard code. Suffix numbers (1, 2, etc.) are used to identify multiple pictures of the same horse taken on the same day.

Back in 2002 and when the website began in 2005 there were very few sources of pictures available. In recent seasons this position has changed and a number of Internet sites now make pictures available. A range of trainers now publish pictures of all their horses and some of the sales companies publish pictures of horses offered at their various sales. Some trainers have gone further and provide Videos of some of their horses and work gallops. B2yoR now collects some of the pictures from these sources and aggregates them in the Picture Archive. These will typically be photos of current 2yos and preserving these images in a permanent Archive will be useful. These pictures will often be removed from their parent website over time and be 'lost'.

The increased range of sources has meant a small extension to the standard naming format. To reflect that pictures in the archive are not just collected on the racecourse the 'Crse' element of the format can now include other four letter codes. For example, 'Stab' is short for 'Stable' and 'Work' for horses on the Gallops.

It is worth recording that the Picture Archive is one of the most used parts of the Website and has a Worldwide audience. Whenever a horse is sold to race in Hong Kong the pictures on the B2yoR site of them get hundreds of hits. The racing community in Kuwait has downloaded the entire Archive (several times and perhaps a request for a DVD might work). It is also fascinating to see how the old 'Eastern Bloc' countries along with Turkey look to Britain as a source of information and horses. B2yoR gets large usage of pictures, and general contact, from these nations including Slovenia, Hungary, Rumania, Russia & Kazakhstan. The importance of a permanent Archive which does not remove pictures when they believe they are not 'current', as a trainer or Stud would do, is also demonstrated by sites such as 'Pedigree Query' linking to pictures on the B2yoR site.

Back to Top of Page