BRITISH 2YO RACING
SITE OVERVIEW
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INTRODUCTION
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2008 2yo SEASON
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2007 2yo SEASON
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2006 2yo SEASON
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2005 2yo SEASON
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2004 SALES RATINGS (Archived)
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TRAINERS 2002-2005
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SIRES 2002-2004
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2yo RACING 2002-2006
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PADDOCK REVIEW
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ARTICLES & DISCUSSION
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PICTURE ARCHIVE
1. INTRODUCTION
British 2yo Racing (B2yoR) is dedicated to following 2yo racing in England,
Scotland and Wales during the turf season (March to November).
The site contains a wide variety of information about horses, trainers,
sires, etc. specifically targeted at 2yo racing. B2yoR aims to make this
information better than existing sources and, as importantly, suggest how
the information should be interpreted and used. For example the pedigree
information available for each 2yo is targeted at being better than, for
comparison, the Racing Post summaries. B2yoR aims to provide information
about all siblings for each runner as well as performance marks and sales
prices. This is only one step forward though - how should you interpret
and use this pedigree information? What are the limits of usefulness of
the information? Follow B2yoR through the 2007 2yo season to learn more.
The site also contains more general information about racing and its
associated jargon. The site includes a section for publishing general articles
about racing. If you have an article that you would like to publish then
please send it to the B2yoR contact
point and if the article is suitable it will be included on the site. There
is also a Glossary which will explain
commonly used acronyms and standard terms that B2yoR uses as well as more
general racing jargon. Again, suggestions are welcomed for items to go
into the Glossary page.
However, probably the main goal of B2yoR is to promote and extend the
use of Paddock Review and 'Horse Standardisation'. 2yo racing necessarily
involves analysing many races where the runners are making their debuts
or have had few runs. Given that much of the analysis of racing is done
through studying previous form, and there's little or no form available,
2yo racing provokes a number of different approaches. For example:-
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Over-reliance on racecourse 'whispers' and 'stable information'. The information
is probably of dubious provenance and is almost certainly of little use
because it almost never takes into account the quality of the opposition.
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'Race Standardisation'. Assuming that certain types of races at certain
courses will always attract runners of the same ability, year in and year
out. This 'model' is then used to rate races, and to assess what level
of performance will be needed to win a race regardless of the actual abilities
of the group of 2yos assembled in the current season. The use of this method
leads to many examples of 2yo races and performances being over-rated and
occasionally under-rated. Correcting the vagaries of 'Race Standardisation'
is probably the most important profitable area for the use of Paddock Review
and 'Horse Standardisation'.
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Over-reliance on individual, lovingly polished, sets of statistics to try
to identify a winner. The use of these types of statistics can be useful
but need to be incorporated into a wider understanding of the race to be
analysed. Flexibility is also needed to interpret statistics because the
primary factor in assessing whether a trainer or sire will have a good
year is the quality of their representatives. For example, trainer's strings
vary in quality from year to year and they may change their methods to
try to make a better impression. Also, first season sires may have a good
record with their initial runners which were produced when they were 'fashionable'.
They will usually then have two less successful seasons with less runners
while the market waits to assess their yearlings/runners.
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'Learned Helplessness'. Listening to those that say that analysing 2yo
races is impossible so ignore it and go back to another run through the
form of the older sprint handicap where everything is running against each
other for the umpteenth time. On the basis that that is easier than 2yo
races....
All of these approaches are inferior to actually going to the paddock to
see the 2yos and reviewing them as physical specimens. It is possible to
see a group of 2yo horses making their debut and be able to assess their
relevant abilities and their likely level of performance through the 2yo
season. With the information gained from reviewing a field of 2yos it is
then relatively easy to assess the likely level of form that they, as a
group, could produce at best. This is preferable to the 'Race Standardisation'
approach described above for example.
The paddock review information brings in a 'Horse Standardisation' approach
where current and future performance can be assessed from the physical
types that ran in the race. The review information for a horse should include
an overall rating which relates to the Official Rating scale and a full
description of its physical type and athleticism. This subject is covered
in more detail in the 'Paddock Review' section on this site.
The use of paddock review information for 2yo races needs to be used
more extensively and needs to be of much greater depth. Current generally
available 'Paddock Review' information is usually of moderate quality.
B2yoR despairs of most efforts at 'paddock review' on the dedicated racing
channels for example. With some honourable exceptions the paddock analysis
in the media tends to show similar problems:-
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Use of unquantified, vague language. 'Nice Type', for instance, is of no
use since it is an insipid personal opinion with no supporting evidence.
It can also be interpreted in a wide range of ways in retrospect.
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Almost obsessional emphasis on minor factors which will probably have no
bearing on a race between a mixed ability group of 2yos in a maiden. At
the forefront of this is the obsession with horse's coats. This is an indicator
of 'well-being' and not fundamental ability and it is information about
the latter that is required with unraced and lightly raced 2yos. The cynical
view might be that paddock review experts spend time highlighting coats,
sweating, 'coltishness', etc. because they've got to say something.
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Use of much too limited descriptions of physical types. For example "Leggy
individual", "Stocky type" and "Unfurnished" are at least trying to identify
the right type of information. But the information is again not quantified
and the implications are not spelt out.
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Paddock analysis which is actually form analysis. Typical examples tend
to progress as "He's a nice type, and his coat looks really shiny. He showed
good form when he finished second to Insipid Remarks at Leicester ........".
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Paddock analysis which are actually pedigree remarks. Most often in the
peculiar form of "He's an ok type, his coat's a bit dry, but he's by the
sire Undoubted Waffle so he'll really love to hear his hooves rattle/get
his toe in [Delete as applicable] today...."
B2yoR envisages a time in the future when the report from a maiden 2yo
race will include :-
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Side on picture of each 2yo.
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Description of physical type in a well known standard form, including simple
measure of athleticism.
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Estimation of fitness on a well known scale.
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Numerical Rating of each 2yo as a physical specimen relating to the best
Official Rating that the 2yo is likely to achieve (in a truly run race,
not the inflated figures that occur by finishing close up in slowly run
black-type races because of race standardisation).
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Summary of the horses likely aptitude and development through the season.
This is not an unreasonable expectation, its been done already. For example,
on this site you'll find parts of the information menu above for 1,387
yearlings that were sold in late 2004. If its possible to try to assess
horses six months, and more, before the 2yo season starts why should we
accept 'Nice Type' guff from paddock reviews of actual races?
B2yoR will produce the information listed above for races in 2006 to
prove what can be achieved. Let us hope we can raise the overall
level of paddock review generally available through the season.
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2. 2008 2yo SEASON
Access to all information resources relating to 2yo racing during the
2008 season. The sub-sections are :-
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Racing Previews - Final Format not set by early March 2008.
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2yo Summaries individual pages which contain the Pedigree information
& Sales price, Run Details & Rating along with general notes for
all 2yos declared in 2008. The pages also contain links to the horse's
2008 Season trainer and sire pages. Where Pictures of the horse and/or
its siblings are available these are also linked from the page. The Run
Details lines also provide links to the Results page for the races that
the 2yo participated in.
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The 2008 Trainers section holds full details of all individual runs
by the trainer's 2yos in 2008 in date order. A separate table highlights
each of the debut performances by the stable's 2yos with links to the individual
"2yo Summaries". This enables the type and quality of the 2yos that a trainer
has to be assessed. Includes an 'Update Strip' which will show how the
stable is performing in 2008 compared to 2007 (updated at regular intervals
through the season).
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The 2008 Sires section holds full details of all individual runs
by the sire's 2yos in 2008 in date order. A separate table highlights each
of the debut performances by the stallion's 2yos with links to the individual
"2yo Summaries". This enables the type and quality of the 2yos that a sire
had to be assessed.
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The Results section contains cut-down results pages for all of the
2yo races during the 2008 season.
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The Season Pictures section contains pictures of 2008 2yo runners
as they become available
There are also links to a number of supporting Information Pages which
provide background details to the B2yoR data. These include :
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Race Note Abbreviations - describes the information provided in
the "Run Notes" part of the Run Detail lines for each outing by a 2yo.
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Pedigree Layout Notes - covers the meaning of the summaries provided
for a 2yo's dam and siblings in their "2yo Summary" page.
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Sire & Trainer Updates - summary of the data that will be presented
in the 'Update' table on each sire and trainer page in the 2007 season.
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Race Result Notes - description of the information presented as
part of the cut-down results format for the 2007 season.
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3. 2007 2yo SEASON
Access to all information resources relating to 2yo racing during the
2007 season. The sub-sections are :-
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Racing Previews - See the Notes
to the change in format in 2007.
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2yo Summaries individual pages which contain the Pedigree information
& Sales price, Run Details & Rating along with general notes for
all 2yos declared in 2007. The pages also contain links to the horse's
2007 Season trainer and sire pages. Where Pictures of the horse and/or
its siblings are available these are also linked from the page. The Run
Details lines also provide links to the Results page for the races that
the 2yo participated in.
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The 2007 Trainers section holds full details of all individual runs
by the trainer's 2yos in 2007 in date order. A separate table highlights
each of the debut performances by the stable's 2yos with links to the individual
"2yo Summaries". This enables the type and quality of the 2yos that a trainer
has to be assessed. Includes an 'Update Strip' which will show how the
stable is performing in 2007 compared to 2006 (updated at regular intervals
through the season).
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The 2007 Sires section holds full details of all individual runs
by the sire's 2yos in 2007 in date order. A separate table highlights each
of the debut performances by the stallion's 2yos with links to the individual
"2yo Summaries". This enables the type and quality of the 2yos that a sire
had to be assessed.
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The Results section will contain cut-down results pages for all
of the 2yo races during the 2007 season.
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The Season Pictures section will contain pictures of 2007 2yo runners
as they become available
There are also links to a number of supporting Information Pages which
provide background details to the B2yoR data. These include :
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Pedigree Layout Notes - covers the meaning of the summaries provided
for a 2yo's dam and siblings in their "2yo Summary" page.
-
Sire & Trainer Updates - summary of the data that will be presented
in the 'Update' table on each sire and trainer page in the 2007 season.
-
Race Result Notes - description of the information presented as
part of the cut-down results format for the 2007 season.
Back to Top of Page
4. 2006 2yo SEASON
Access to all information resources relating to 2yo racing during the
2006 season. The sub-sections are :-
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Race Profiles contains a visual representation of the expected level
of performance of each of the runners in a race along with a summary of
the race shape and quality. Profiles are produced for as many races as
time permits.
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2yo Summaries contain the Pedigree information & Sales price,
Run Details & Rating along with general notes for all 2yos declared
in 2006. The pages also contain links to the horse's 2006 Season trainer
and sire pages. Where Pictures of the horse and/or its siblings are available
these are also linked from the page.
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The 2006 Trainers section holds full details of all individual runs
by the trainer's 2yos in 2006 in date order. A separate table highlights
each of the debut performances by the stable's 2yos with links to the individual
"2yo Summaries". This enables the type and quality of the 2yos that a trainer
has to be assessed. It is planned to implement two improvements in 2006.
Firstly, a 'Dashboard' which will enable a trainer to be categorised
by his strategy with 2yos and an 'Update Strip' which will show how the
stable is performing in 2006 compared to 2004-5 (updated at regular intervals
through the season).
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The 2006 Sires section holds full details of all individual runs
by the sire's 2yos in 2006 in date order. A separate table highlights each
of the debut performances by the stallion's 2yos with links to the individual
"2yo Summaries". This enables the type and quality of the 2yos that a sire
had to be assessed.
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The Results section will contain cut-down results pages for all
of the 2yo races during the 2006 season. In particular the presentation
is designed to try to show how a well crafted set of Run Style and Race
Notes for each participant can characterise a race.
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The Season Pictures section will contain pictures of 2006 2yo runners
as they become available
There are also links to a number of supporting Information Pages which
provide background details to the B2yoR data. These include :
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Race Note Abbreviations - describes the information provided in
the "Run Notes" part of the Run Detail lines for each outing by a 2yo.
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Pedigree Layout Notes - covers the meaning of the summaries provided
for a 2yo's dam and siblings in their "2yo Summary" page.
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Paddock/Sales Ratings - where available the "2yo Summary" and race
reports will include Sales and/or Paddock Review ratings. These are figures
allocated either at the sales or after on-course paddock review (as 2yos)
which rate the 2yo as a physical specimen. The meaning of the rating ranges
is explained.
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Trainer Dashboard - description of the information held in the 'Dashboard'
found in the 2006 trainer pages.
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Sire & Trainer Updates - summary of the data that will be presented
in the 'Update' table on each sire and trainer page in the 2006 season.
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Race Result Notes - description of the information presented as
part of the cut-down results format for the 2006 season.
Back to Top of Page
5. 2005 2yo SEASON
Access to all information resources relating to 2yo racing 2005 season.
The sub-sections are :-
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Race Profiles contains pre-race profiles of the expected level of
performance of each of the runners and of the race as a whole. These were
produced between March and June in 2005.
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2yo Summaries contain the Pedigree information & Sales price,
Run Details & Rating along with general notes for all 2yos declared
in 2005. The pages also contain links to the horse's trainer and sire pages.
Where Pictures of the horse and/or its siblings are available these are
also linked from the page.
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The 2005 Trainers section holds full details of all individual runs
by the trainer's 2yos in 2005 in date order. A separate table highlights
each of the debut performances by the stable's 2yos with links to the individual
"2yo Summaries". This enables the type and quality of the 2yos that a trainer
had to be assessed.
-
The 2005 Sires section holds full details of all individual runs
by the sire's 2yos in 2005 in date order. A separate table highlights each
of the debut performances by the stallion's 2yos with links to the individual
"2yo Summaries". This enables the type and quality of the 2yos that a sire
had to be assessed.
The Season Pictures section contains pictures of 2005 2yo runners.
After the close of the 2005 season on November 6th the section also
includes lnks to summary statistics tables for all trainers and sires.
The information covers total runners, winners, wins, runs, winning strike
rate, winners to runners and wins per winner. These are presented as a
set of tables ordered by each of the listed attributes as well as alphbetically
by trainer/sire name.
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6. 2004 SALES RATINGS (now
Archived)
B2yoR attends a number of the UK's yearling sales and uses 'Paddock
Review' methods to assess a range of yearlings as physical specimens and
for their likely effectiveness as 2yo racehorses.
This section contains information about a range of yearlings which were
sold at the Tattersalls October (TO1 and TO2), Tattersalls December (TDC),
Doncaster St Leger (DSL) and Doncaster October (DOC) sales in 2004. Around
60% of these yearlings will run in Britain as 2yos in 2005 and account
for more than 30% of the 2yo runners.
The sales ratings and pedigree information provided for each yearling
can be used to:
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assess runners before their debut runs
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assess the strength of a race containing mainly unraced or lightly raced
2yos.
A 'Top 30' of good value buys and '40 Suspect Value' buys are included
to follow during the 2005 season.
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7. TRAINERS 2002-2007
The sections contains statistical summaries for the 2yo runners (i.e.
3yo+ runners are excluded) of around 524 trainers that had 2yo runners
in at least one of the seasons 2003 to 2007. For some major trainers the
information provided includes the trainer's statistics for seasons between
1996 and 2002.
The summary pages for each trainer initially covers the 'usual' statistics
such as number of 2yo runners/runs, number of winners/wins, wins to runs
by month and so forth. The summaries then cover a range of information
about trainer's methods which are not generally available. These cover
:-
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STABLE WINS TO RUNS BY DISTANCE (2002 - 2007)
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STABLE WINS TO RUNS BY MONTH (2001 - 2007)
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STABLE WINS TO RUNS BY RUN NUMBER (2002 - 2007)
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STABLE WINS TO RUNS BY DISTANCE (2002 - 2007)
2003
to 2006 DEBUT RUN STATISTICS :
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DEBUT RUNS GROUPED BY FINISHING POSITION (2003 - 2007)
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DEBUT WINS-RUNS BY STARTING PRICE GROUP (2003 - 2007)
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DEBUT WINS-RUNS BY RACE TYPE (2005-7)
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DEBUT WINS-RUNS BY RACE CLASS (2005-7)
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DEBUT WINS-RUNS BY RACE DISTANCE (2003 - 2007)
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DAYS BETWEEN FIRST AND SECOND RUNS GROUPED BY FINISHING POSITION (2003
- 2007)
This information is very useful in improving your understanding a trainer's
strategy and methods with 2yo runners.
For trainers with 2yo runners in 2005-7 a new statistic is available
:-
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WINNERS TO NON-WINNERS BY MONTH OF DEBUT (2003 - 2007)
This particular data is useful in assessing how a trainer identifies the
2yos with winning potential and how early they run them.
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8. SIRES 2002-07
The sections contains statistical summaries for the 2yo runners (i.e.
3yo+ runners are excluded) of around 650 sires that had 2yo runners
in seasons 2003 to 2006. For some important sires the information provided
includes statistics for seasons between 1999 and 2002.
The summary pages for each sire initially covers the 'usual' statistics
such as number of 2yo runners/runs, number of winners/wins, wins to runs
by month and so forth. The summaries then cover a range of information
about sires methods which are not generally available. These cover :-
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SIRE WINS TO RUNS BY DISTANCE (2002 - 2007)
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SIRE WINS TO RUNS BY MONTH (2001 - 2007)
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SIRE WINS TO RUNS BY RUN NUMBER (2002 - 2007)
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SIRE WINS TO RUNS BY DISTANCE (2002 - 2007)
2003
to 2006 DEBUT RUN STATISTICS :
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DEBUT RUNS GROUPED BY FINISHING POSITION (2003 - 2007)
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DEBUT WINS-RUNS BY STARTING PRICE GROUP (2003 - 2007)
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DEBUT WINS-RUNS BY RACE TYPE (2005-7)
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DEBUT WINS-RUNS BY RACE CLASS (2005-7)
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DEBUT WINS-RUNS BY RACE DISTANCE (2003 - 2007)
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DAYS BETWEEN FIRST AND SECOND RUNS GROUPED BY FINISHING POSITION (2003
- 2007)
For sires with 2yo runners in 2005-7 a new statistic has been added :-
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WINNERS TO NON-WINNERS BY MONTH OF DEBUT (2003 - 2007)
This particular data is useful in assessing how precocious a sire's 2yos
with winning potential are.
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9. 2yo RACING 2002-7
This section provides information summaries for the 2yo season for the
years 2002 to 2006. The 2yo season covers all 2yo races in Britain during
the flat turf season, including 2yo races on the all-weather during the
turf season.
The information is useful for anyone interested in 2yo racing and gaining
a general understanding of the 'size and shape' of the 2yo season
and what factors influence it.
The data covers the following areas - 2yo Horses; Races; Winners; Starting
Prices; General Sires & Dams; Trainer Population & Methods.
The information is split by a range of interesting questions about 2yo
racing which it should help to explain. This 'question' format helps to
introduce some of the factors that someone should be thinking about when
trying to analyse 2yo racing in general and particular 2yo races.
Examples of the questions posed :-
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How many 2yo horses run during the season?
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What percentage of those horses win a race? More than one race?
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What percentage of horses win first time out?
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Do fillies win their share of races compared to the males?
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Does horse colour make any difference to their chances of winning at 2yo?
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What standard of performance is needed to win the average maiden at each
racecourse?
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What is the percentage of 70+ rated winning performances?
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Which trainers use 'headgear' most often on their horses? How does it affect
winning strike rate?
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How has the number of races on All-Weather surfaces changed?
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10. PADDOCK REVIEW
Paddock Review describes the activity of going to see the 2yos in the
pre-parade and paddock and assessing their abilities and aptitudes using
a simple system. The review will produce a rating of each 2yo as a physical
specimen, a full description of physical type and an outline of its prospects
for its 2yo career.
This section contains an overview of the the type of Paddock Reviewing
B2yoR believes is appropriate for 2yo races. It covers the overall approach
and what areas to look for and what to ignore. The section encourages the
use of paddock review and explains why this should not be seen as a 'black
art' and the preserve of 'horsey' people who are in-the-know.
The section includes a number of 'Virtual Paddocks' with picture examples
of actual sets of 2yos for you to try to split into known types. The answers
to these Virtual Paddocks can be obtained by sending an e-mail to the B2yoR
contact
point.
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11. ARTICLES & DISCUSSION
DOCUMENTS
Contains all of the site documents related to thoroughbreds and racing,
especially 2yo racing. The section includes the publishing dates for titled
future documents.
What's the difference between an article and a discussion document?
Articles are intended as explanatory and informational documents for a
general audience. Discussion documents will include more personal opinion
and can express any worthwhile view so long as it is backed up by some
knowledge and thought.
Anyone can submit a article or discussion to this website for inclusion
if suitable. Please send any contribution to Contact
Info. Note that the author retains the copyright of any article
published on the B2yoR website. From 2007 a payment of £25 (British
Sterling) will be made for suitable articles which are accepted for publishing
on the site. Where a payment is made articles will be subject to editorial
review and requests for changes before acceptance.
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12. PICTURE ARCHIVE
Resource containing pictures of 2yo horses from the 2002 season onwards.
The pictures are of varying quality but are not intended to be used for
professional or commercial purposes. They are made available here for people
interested in 2yo racing and in thoroughbred conformation and types.
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© British 2yo Racing. All rights reserved.